I usually don't like getting into these discussions here. I'd rather talk about bikes. But...

I see this particular stat rather often. It must be coming from some environmental propaganda outfit, and they must be pretty good at their job. It sure gets around.

Anyway, it's completely misleading and is based on a fundamental misunderstanding of thermodynamics.

The 30% efficiency reported for gas powered cars is based on the fact that the thermodynamic cycle that turns heat into motion takes place inside of the car. The 80% reported for EV's is based on the fact that that cycle has already taken place somewhere else.

But it doesn't matter where it takes place. Somewhere along the line in any energy system you are going to turn heat into motion*, and that conversion is subject to inherent thermodynamic limits. Moving that point of energy conversion from inside the vehicle to outside the vehicle does not change the efficiency of the total system.

* If you don't, then you're going to have a similarly inefficient energy conversion (such as a photovoltaic cell) somewhere in the system. The simplest way to understand thermodynamics is that it tells us that you not only can't get something for nothing, you can't even break even.

 

Carbon footprint, fossil fuels, battery technology, limited range blah, blah, blah, asides I have had the use of an electric vehicle a Nissan Leaf from my work. It was my first experience with an all electric vehicle. (We'll more or less all have one in the end in the form of a mobility scooter perhaps?) My work pays a lease on the batteries of £72 per month. I don't put £72 of gas in my normal vehicle per month and that is without the time and money spent on charging it. Switch the air conditioning on and you lose 12 miles of the 100 mile range you have on a full charge.

Nevertheless my interest has been captivated as a result, not for any of the reasons or argumentative points above but simply because when I switched off the ECO button the damn thing drove like a scalded cat, **** off a shovel kind of way. The instant torque and power drive was truly amazing, only experienced before in a 100cc Go Kart fitted with an Iame engine that gave 22 BHP. If the economics and practicality of electric vehicles can be ironed out I will be one of the first in line to dip my toe in the water with an H-D Livewire as a stablemate for the Breakout.

 

No doubt about that. Electric motors are torque monsters. From a driveability perspective, they are wonderful.

Which isn't to say there isn't a place for someone to prefer the irregular power delivery of an internal combustion engine.

But I expect that, for most consumers, if you could hold everything else equal (range, re-fuel time, cost, etc), they would pick an electric motor.

I also think most of this misses the point of the future of the vehicle market. I expect that 50 years from now, car ownership will be largely a thing of the past. Instead, something Uber-like will be used to summons a self-driving vehicle (probably, but not necessarily electric powered) on an as-needed basis. By taking the driver out of the equation, the economics will be such that getting a Uber (etal) ride will be way, way cheaper than incurring the total costs of owning your own car.

If you need to take a road trip, 2067 guy will probably rent a (self-driving, natch) car/van.

There are two fundamental take-aways from that. First, I think the vehicle market is going to contract dramatically over the next 50 years. In the 2067, each individual car will have a far higher utilization rate than cars do today, and therefore there will be a whole lot fewer of them. Second, there will always be a market for gasoline powered vehicles, but they will become increasingly specialized, luxurious and rare. 2067 guy will probably be able to buy a new, gasoline powered HD, but he may also find it far more difficult to find places to buy gas.

 

I hate the concept of electric motorcycles. The sound is a huge part of the experience, and I think most people will agree. If they need things like the Livewire or whatever to meet some future EPA standard, so be it. I won't be buying one.

I also hate, loathe really, the idea of self-driving cars. I like to think I'm not some old curmudgeon at 28, but with self driving cars, it will just be another aspect where individual freedom has been eroded in the name of convenience. I'm sure what they will initially do will be to price it so it is much cheaper to use the service than owning a car for most people. Once they lobby the hacks in Washington to make car ownership more and more expensive in the name of global warming, they'll jack up the subscription fee to use the service. In the end I'm sure the cost will rival a car payment. Without the benefit, of actually owning a car.