https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/...ealership.aspx

 

 

This is just an exit vehicle for existing dealers. Gives them a cash out then allows the PE firm to load the dealership up with debt then "strip and flip".

PE firms absolutely suck

 

According to the article, 60% of HD sales is in the US. HD is being either awfully optimistic or sadly naive if they think their business plan is practical in the face of a diminishing customer base and flagging sales. Their signature bikes start at around $20,000. And go up from there. It's not going to work.

 

 

In other news:

The International Monetary Fund has cut its forecast for world economic growth this year, citing heightened trade tensions and rising U.S. interest rates.

The IMF said Monday that it expects global growth this year of 3.5 per cent, down from 3.7 per cent in 2018 and from the 3.7 per cent it had forecast for 2019 back in October.

Rising trade tensions pose a major risk to the world economy. Under President Donald Trump the United States has imposed import taxes on steel, aluminum and hundreds of Chinese products, drawing retaliation from China and other U.S. trading partners.

"Higher trade uncertainty will further dampen investment and disrupt global supply chains," said IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath.

The writing is on the wall, just have to read it.....

 

Absolutely recipe for disaster My family has been doing business with the same family owned dealer for over sixty years. We are friends,now on the third generation. Deals made on a handshake. When Harley starts driving their family business owners out,they are done. As far as the tariffs go,I say good for president Trump's stand to save American jobs. The economy is going fine,best grow in America in the last sixty years, lowest unemployment in 48 years, black and Hispanic empoyment at all time highs. China's is in trouble and that is good news for any American that likes their job. Since globalization and NAFTA American's have lost their jobs and received no raises in years . Build and buy products made here with American steel and labor . Stop buying Chiness made junk and funding a communist country.Invest in our country and our stocks. If you haven't made money in the American market or your 401k in the last couple of years find a new advisor. I know this will **** off alot of millennials,but I could care less.

 

Pretty clear that the HD business model is changing. Between sales on Amazon and now PE investors it's obvious that they are going to much more of a strictly financially driven company. Real shame because the customer relationship and focus on the culture and riding experience is what set HD apart. In the future they'll be competing head to head with manufacturing and engineering giants like Honda, BMW, etc. I just don't see that as a path to future success, but I don't have an MBA so what do I know?

Recently, I've been into a couple local dealerships. This time of year there are usually more employees than customers. That's gonna change. Employees won't be rewarded for loyalty with continued jobs during the off season. They'll be laid off and new ones hired at **** wages each riding season. I'm wondering what happens with all the clothing and accessories. I always assumed those sales had fairly high margins, but they also represent a lot of working capital, which PE firms often see as the first opportunity to make a quick buck on by selling it off and not replacing it.

It's over.

 

Lotta doom and gloom in this thread.

Can't say I disagree with it.