M8 problems
#1491
08-05-2018, 06:27 AM
Yes it does seem like we see two or three new reports per week. But keep in mind, Harley sells approximately 5,000 motorcycles every week! 2 to 3 new reports each week is not an epidemic, it's a rounding error in terms of a percentage of the total.
To say 5 to 15% of M8's are sumping sounds like extraordinary exaggeration to me. I mean, like, outrageously exaggerated. Just like everything else in this world, the internet has helped blow everything grossly out of proportion.
Sumping is a problem and it should NEVER happen, especially on a premium bike. Especially on one that is designed and marketed to go long distances. It is ridiculous, I agree. But astronomical exaggeration is equally ridiculous. Seriously... 15%? You think one out of every six M8 bikes is sitting in the shop being evaluated for sumping? That would be approximately 38,000 bikes! There are only 698 dealers in the entire USA! So each dealership's service department has worked on 54 sumpers already?
Ask your service department -- have they had 54 sumping bikes? 54 at each and every dealership?
Come on. That's patently absurd. There would be no way on Earth that they could hide such a widespread Issue that causes such catastrophic damage
Harley Australia reportedly said that as of last December they had a total of 1.2% of M8's sump. Even at that rate, if it held to today, that would mean 2,500 sumping bikes in the US. That's still outrageous, don't get me wrong. But seeing as this forum has seen, what, let's be very generous, maybe 100 reports of sumping in 2 years, that would mean about 1 of every 25 sumpers have discussed it here. And that seems like a reasonable number.
1% seems like an infinitely more believable number. Still outrageous, but in my estimation a much more accurate number than the 5 to 15% number that has been tossed around here.
To say 5 to 15% of M8's are sumping sounds like extraordinary exaggeration to me. I mean, like, outrageously exaggerated. Just like everything else in this world, the internet has helped blow everything grossly out of proportion.
Sumping is a problem and it should NEVER happen, especially on a premium bike. Especially on one that is designed and marketed to go long distances. It is ridiculous, I agree. But astronomical exaggeration is equally ridiculous. Seriously... 15%? You think one out of every six M8 bikes is sitting in the shop being evaluated for sumping? That would be approximately 38,000 bikes! There are only 698 dealers in the entire USA! So each dealership's service department has worked on 54 sumpers already?
Ask your service department -- have they had 54 sumping bikes? 54 at each and every dealership?
Come on. That's patently absurd. There would be no way on Earth that they could hide such a widespread Issue that causes such catastrophic damage
Harley Australia reportedly said that as of last December they had a total of 1.2% of M8's sump. Even at that rate, if it held to today, that would mean 2,500 sumping bikes in the US. That's still outrageous, don't get me wrong. But seeing as this forum has seen, what, let's be very generous, maybe 100 reports of sumping in 2 years, that would mean about 1 of every 25 sumpers have discussed it here. And that seems like a reasonable number.
1% seems like an infinitely more believable number. Still outrageous, but in my estimation a much more accurate number than the 5 to 15% number that has been tossed around here.
Sure, a country wide average might only be 1-5 per dealer... but the truth is that some dealers have none and others have many.
A dealer local to me had about 2 dozen; sure, out of about 1000 bikes (but not only M8 bikes) sold... but that's still 24 of them, not 5.
That's 2.4% if you take the 1000 as all M8 (yes, not 5%... but then not 1% either)
I suspect, given these localised highs and lows, that the sumping is either a "bad batch" phenomenon or it's a "three components with bad tolerances all coming together on the same bike" type of problem.
That it exists can't be denied. Also what can't be denied is HD not seeming to have any idea about the causes or the fixes.
And this on a premium level motorcycle, a "flagship" you could say.
They have lost, and will continue to lose, a lot of customers over this - but then again, the "fanboi" buyers will still flock to them.
(** example: 20 people, average score of 10... so that could be 20 people all getting 10 each.... or it could be 1 person getting 181 and the other 19 getting 1... or 10 people getting 19 and 10 people getting 1.
So long as the total adds up to 200 you then divide by 20 to get the average. But it's meaningless and more used for cover-up or propaganda.
But for the average to mean anything you need to know the base values it was calculated from)
Last edited by OzHD; 08-05-2018 at 06:29 AM.
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STRADALE (08-05-2018)
#1492
08-05-2018, 07:34 AM
Facts from recent HD financial report. HD sold 240,000 motorcycles in 2017. 40% were Touring (M8s) or 96,000. HD will sell about 230,000 in 2018 model year. 40% Touring + 40% Softails (80% M8s) = 184,000 M8s. Total M8s in 2017 + 2018 = 280,000 M8s on the road.
I think its very reasonable based on forums postings, dealer feedback plus the fact that HD published SB1450 stating that ALL 2017 & 2018 M8s of all sizes, stock plus stage kits, touring and softail .... that the incidence of sumping is larger than most believe. I think its fair to say that the incidence rate is between 1 - 10%. That means that somewhere between 2800 and 28000 brand new Harley Davidson bike customers are dealing with a failed engine.
We’re not talking about a software glitch, or a paint defect or a bad turn signal. We’re talking about the entire engine failing for thousands of brand new bike owners of a very expensive motorcycle. So far HD has voided warranties on alot of these failed engines for issues completely unrelated to the engine failure such as exhaust and tuner violations.
They have taken care of many other failed engines under warranty but only after bike owners lose weeks and sometimes months of riding time.
The incidence rate will continue to rise with every ridden mile of these M8 bikes. And soon the 2017s bikes will drop out of the factory warranty. Then what? Will HD stand by these bike owners should their engine sump and fail???
You be the judge if you think HD has handled this defective engine design fairly and appropriately.
I think its very reasonable based on forums postings, dealer feedback plus the fact that HD published SB1450 stating that ALL 2017 & 2018 M8s of all sizes, stock plus stage kits, touring and softail .... that the incidence of sumping is larger than most believe. I think its fair to say that the incidence rate is between 1 - 10%. That means that somewhere between 2800 and 28000 brand new Harley Davidson bike customers are dealing with a failed engine.
We’re not talking about a software glitch, or a paint defect or a bad turn signal. We’re talking about the entire engine failing for thousands of brand new bike owners of a very expensive motorcycle. So far HD has voided warranties on alot of these failed engines for issues completely unrelated to the engine failure such as exhaust and tuner violations.
They have taken care of many other failed engines under warranty but only after bike owners lose weeks and sometimes months of riding time.
The incidence rate will continue to rise with every ridden mile of these M8 bikes. And soon the 2017s bikes will drop out of the factory warranty. Then what? Will HD stand by these bike owners should their engine sump and fail???
You be the judge if you think HD has handled this defective engine design fairly and appropriately.
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STRADALE (08-05-2018)
#1493
08-05-2018, 10:51 AM
Road Warrior
Yes it does seem like we see two or three new reports per week. But keep in mind, Harley sells approximately 5,000 motorcycles every week! 2 to 3 new reports each week is not an epidemic, it's a rounding error in terms of a percentage of the total.
To say 5 to 15% of M8's are sumping sounds like extraordinary exaggeration to me. I mean, like, outrageously exaggerated. Just like everything else in this world, the internet has helped blow everything grossly out of proportion.
Sumping is a problem and it should NEVER happen, especially on a premium bike. Especially on one that is designed and marketed to go long distances. It is ridiculous, I agree. But astronomical exaggeration is equally ridiculous. Seriously... 15%? You think one out of every six M8 bikes is sitting in the shop being evaluated for sumping? That would be approximately 38,000 bikes! There are only 698 dealers in the entire USA! So each dealership's service department has worked on 54 sumpers already?
Ask your service department -- have they had 54 sumping bikes? 54 at each and every dealership?
Come on. That's patently absurd. There would be no way on Earth that they could hide such a widespread Issue that causes such catastrophic damage
Harley Australia reportedly said that as of last December they had a total of 1.2% of M8's sump. Even at that rate, if it held to today, that would mean 2,500 sumping bikes in the US. That's still outrageous, don't get me wrong. But seeing as this forum has seen, what, let's be very generous, maybe 100 reports of sumping in 2 years, that would mean about 1 of every 25 sumpers have discussed it here. And that seems like a reasonable number.
1% seems like an infinitely more believable number. Still outrageous, but in my estimation a much more accurate number than the 5 to 15% number that has been tossed around here.
To say 5 to 15% of M8's are sumping sounds like extraordinary exaggeration to me. I mean, like, outrageously exaggerated. Just like everything else in this world, the internet has helped blow everything grossly out of proportion.
Sumping is a problem and it should NEVER happen, especially on a premium bike. Especially on one that is designed and marketed to go long distances. It is ridiculous, I agree. But astronomical exaggeration is equally ridiculous. Seriously... 15%? You think one out of every six M8 bikes is sitting in the shop being evaluated for sumping? That would be approximately 38,000 bikes! There are only 698 dealers in the entire USA! So each dealership's service department has worked on 54 sumpers already?
Ask your service department -- have they had 54 sumping bikes? 54 at each and every dealership?
Come on. That's patently absurd. There would be no way on Earth that they could hide such a widespread Issue that causes such catastrophic damage
Harley Australia reportedly said that as of last December they had a total of 1.2% of M8's sump. Even at that rate, if it held to today, that would mean 2,500 sumping bikes in the US. That's still outrageous, don't get me wrong. But seeing as this forum has seen, what, let's be very generous, maybe 100 reports of sumping in 2 years, that would mean about 1 of every 25 sumpers have discussed it here. And that seems like a reasonable number.
1% seems like an infinitely more believable number. Still outrageous, but in my estimation a much more accurate number than the 5 to 15% number that has been tossed around here.
“ Come on. That's patently absurd. There would be no way on Earth that they could hide such a widespread Issue that causes such catastrophic damage “
Didnt the Catholic Church persecute Galillio when he declared that the earth wasnt at the center of the universe ?, and place him in house arrest ?.
Make no mistake these M8 problems are with out a doubt hitting Harley in the back pocket with not so much so many of these engines , more of I like the bike but I’m not going to drop a **** ton of cash on just Incase I get a bad one.
I can’t wait to see on how these new engines fair up on the 19’s, In the meantime, I’ll be riding my sporty with its 100 year old design engine for many miles to come.
I hope 🤔
Wiz
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STRADALE (08-05-2018)
#1494
08-05-2018, 03:16 PM
Grand HDF Member
The overall number is almost certainly much lower than is being tossed around for a number of reasons, one of which is that the Softails appear to be immune to the issue, as per the reports on this forum. I used to say we had only one Softail reported sumping here, but after reviewing that poster's comment, it certainly doesn't sound like sumping. He reported that there was no power loss, no high revs, the engine wasn't hot, and he didn't mention any burnt oil smell. He said that his bike was leaking oil from the lifter covers, and that the dealership diagnosed it as sumping. But it sounds like it could just as easily be a case of the service writer using the wrong term to describe the issue.
Yes the service bulletin says that Softails could be affected. But we have never heard about it here, in a year.
What we hear about all the time is wethead Stage IV CVO bikes sumping. I doubt very many of those are sold each year, but they seem to sump very frequently. I wouldn't be surprised if the percentage on those particular configurations was substantial. If someone were to say that 20% of wethead CVO Stage IV bikes were sumping, I would have to say that I would find that believable.
As far as hiding it, this isn't some political conspiracy, this is a public company with very active competition. If tens of thousands of bikes were having engines replaced, repeatedly, that would probably impact earnings and profitability so severely that it would have to be called out in their public filings and reports. If there were hundreds of sumped bikes sitting in dealer repair shops getting engines replaced, Indian would be singing that story to the heavens. It took them, what, less than a couple of hours to capitalize on Harley's declaration of moving some production overseas because of the tariffs. I mean, they had ads out within a day IIRC. If there was truly a catastrophic company-ending disaster of failing engines everywhere, how have they not said a word? Where are the Moto journalists on this?
Sumping is a real issue. No way in hell would I buy an M8 Ultra and put a Stage IV kit on it. That seems like a highly risky proposition. In fact, I wouldn't want to put a Stage IV on any touring M8. But after following this issue extensively, and digging into the real numbers, I am now seriously entertaining the idea of Stage IV for my Softail, and I am taking my M8 Softail cross-country in a few weeks and I have absolutely zero concerns that my Stage II Softail 114 will sump. Zero.
If it does, I will share the story. I will admit if I am wrong.
But I still think the overall picture being painted here is simply not reasonable and not supported by any dealers, by the ratio of reports here, by the financial disclosure documents, or by the end user reports of riding groups and HOG groups.
It does happen, yes. It is an outrageous problem for their premium CVO buyers. But without some dealers coming out and saying they've personally seen 100 bikes in their service department for sumping issues, there is no rational way to justify the estimates we are hearing of things like "10% of all M8's are having engine failures due to sumping." I think based on the reports we have we could better guess at something like 0% of Softails, 1-2% of touring bikes, and 10-20% of wethead Stage IV CVOs have sumped. Those types of numbers would seem to fit the available evidence (such as it is).
Yes the service bulletin says that Softails could be affected. But we have never heard about it here, in a year.
What we hear about all the time is wethead Stage IV CVO bikes sumping. I doubt very many of those are sold each year, but they seem to sump very frequently. I wouldn't be surprised if the percentage on those particular configurations was substantial. If someone were to say that 20% of wethead CVO Stage IV bikes were sumping, I would have to say that I would find that believable.
As far as hiding it, this isn't some political conspiracy, this is a public company with very active competition. If tens of thousands of bikes were having engines replaced, repeatedly, that would probably impact earnings and profitability so severely that it would have to be called out in their public filings and reports. If there were hundreds of sumped bikes sitting in dealer repair shops getting engines replaced, Indian would be singing that story to the heavens. It took them, what, less than a couple of hours to capitalize on Harley's declaration of moving some production overseas because of the tariffs. I mean, they had ads out within a day IIRC. If there was truly a catastrophic company-ending disaster of failing engines everywhere, how have they not said a word? Where are the Moto journalists on this?
Sumping is a real issue. No way in hell would I buy an M8 Ultra and put a Stage IV kit on it. That seems like a highly risky proposition. In fact, I wouldn't want to put a Stage IV on any touring M8. But after following this issue extensively, and digging into the real numbers, I am now seriously entertaining the idea of Stage IV for my Softail, and I am taking my M8 Softail cross-country in a few weeks and I have absolutely zero concerns that my Stage II Softail 114 will sump. Zero.
If it does, I will share the story. I will admit if I am wrong.
But I still think the overall picture being painted here is simply not reasonable and not supported by any dealers, by the ratio of reports here, by the financial disclosure documents, or by the end user reports of riding groups and HOG groups.
It does happen, yes. It is an outrageous problem for their premium CVO buyers. But without some dealers coming out and saying they've personally seen 100 bikes in their service department for sumping issues, there is no rational way to justify the estimates we are hearing of things like "10% of all M8's are having engine failures due to sumping." I think based on the reports we have we could better guess at something like 0% of Softails, 1-2% of touring bikes, and 10-20% of wethead Stage IV CVOs have sumped. Those types of numbers would seem to fit the available evidence (such as it is).
#1495
08-05-2018, 05:03 PM
Heatwave posted that 80% of the bike’s sold were M8’s w/ 40% Softails, 40% touring so if you remove M8 Softails from the equation that doubles the % of touring M8’s w/ the problem.
If there are approx. 2-3 reports of sumping per week here instead of the total number of all M8 bikes sold worldwide or even touring M8’s sold worldwide, it would be interesting to know how many M8 or M8 touring owners are registered on the forum because that’s the more accurate # to use for a percentage relating to the # of reports.
As to it being reported in earnings think that’s to be seen & if anything this will be an expense item buried & listed under warranty costs/repairs, not divulged as the # of M8 engines that have sumped or the costs for those repairs, in fact I’d actually be surprised if they even report total warranty costs as a separate line item. I haven’t looked at a HOG quarterly or annual in a long time as I sold my shares a while ago but doubtful they list #’s of specific repairs or even the number of bikes affected unless it’s part of an official recall.
But give props to the above posters, definitely a valuable discussion with well thought out rationale on the scope of the issue which I honestly have not seen discussed yet in any detail, I think anybody w/ an M8 or looking to buy an M8 (like myself) would like information about their chances of having the problem. Any previous attempts here to discuss & arrive at some reasonable guesstimates seem to go down hill fast! Whether agree or disagree it’s refreshing to have an intelligent conversation (without people resorting to bashing, name calling or putting people down for an opposing opinion) that’s the real purpose/value of a forum imo. ��
If there are approx. 2-3 reports of sumping per week here instead of the total number of all M8 bikes sold worldwide or even touring M8’s sold worldwide, it would be interesting to know how many M8 or M8 touring owners are registered on the forum because that’s the more accurate # to use for a percentage relating to the # of reports.
As to it being reported in earnings think that’s to be seen & if anything this will be an expense item buried & listed under warranty costs/repairs, not divulged as the # of M8 engines that have sumped or the costs for those repairs, in fact I’d actually be surprised if they even report total warranty costs as a separate line item. I haven’t looked at a HOG quarterly or annual in a long time as I sold my shares a while ago but doubtful they list #’s of specific repairs or even the number of bikes affected unless it’s part of an official recall.
But give props to the above posters, definitely a valuable discussion with well thought out rationale on the scope of the issue which I honestly have not seen discussed yet in any detail, I think anybody w/ an M8 or looking to buy an M8 (like myself) would like information about their chances of having the problem. Any previous attempts here to discuss & arrive at some reasonable guesstimates seem to go down hill fast! Whether agree or disagree it’s refreshing to have an intelligent conversation (without people resorting to bashing, name calling or putting people down for an opposing opinion) that’s the real purpose/value of a forum imo. ��
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scooper321 (11-01-2019)
#1496
08-05-2018, 05:22 PM
Seasoned HDF Member
#1498
08-05-2018, 07:31 PM
Grand HDF Member
Yes, certainly. Although not double, it would be 2/3 touring and 1/3 Softails, since in 2017 100% of the M8's were touring, and in 2018 it was more 50/50.
So yes I am absolutely saying that the ratio of sumping is not only greatly increased, but in fact is pretty much exclusive to, the touring bikes. That's why I say it grossly inflates the % of M8's that are sumping because that ignores a huge swath of M8's that are very likely never sumping.
My point is: 5% (or more) of all M8's sumping? Seems preposterous. 5% of TOURING bikes sumping? Seems way way high to me, but I am open to the argument. 5% of wethead CVO Stage IVs sumping? I would find that believable, and would suspect that number might be even low.
So add up all the never-sumping Softails, all the infrequent-sumping oil-cooled touring M8's, all the wethead M8's, and all the highly-sumping CVOs, all together, and divide the # of total reports, and I think you'll be looking at more like 1% overall.
I do not think the reports of sumping are fake. But I do think that a rational review of the "data" (such as it is) shows that the claims of the overall prevalence of the issue is greatly being exaggerated (just like the internet tends to lead to the exaggeration of everything). It used to be that stories of failures were only ever heard about locally. There might be 800 sumping across the country, and that would be one per dealer, and most folks would never even give it a thought. Now, with the internet, each and every one of us hears about all 800 sumping and MY GOD, THIS IS THE BIGGEST DISASTER IN THE HISTORY OF THE COMPANY!!! But it isn't; it's the same 1 per dealer.
So yes, we should have the discussion, yes we should share the symptoms so we know what to look for. Sumping happens and it is a disaster for those who it happens to and it is completely unacceptable. But still... We've heard of maybe 50 reports, total? 100 if we're being very generous? With, what are we saying, 2000 touring bikes sold every week? More bikes out there will increase the number of reports, sure. But that is still a rate of 0.02% or so. We have to multiply that by at least 10x, if not 100x, to account for the proportion of hdforum members to the # of touring bike buyers, but even if we allow a 100x factor, that is still just a rate of 2% OF BIKES SOLD THAT WEEK. That doesn't count the existing body of, what, 300,000 bikes out there! We would have to turn to our 50-100 reports total to accommodate the entire body of M8 bikes, and even at 100 that would represent a sumping rate of .0003%. Even if we allow that for every report we hear here, there are 3,000 sumpers we don't hear about, that still brings the overall rate to just 1%. Do you see why I say that a rate of 15% or even 5% just seems so incredibly unrealistic?
Someone with way too much time on their hands could get us real data by stationing themselves at a major Harley dealer with a huge service department, and make notes of the complaints people report at the service counter. How many report loss of power and burnt oil smells? Or, if you have an incredible relationship with a dealer, ask to see the service intake records for a week. How many M8's are listed with sumping symptoms? This is unlikely data to actually get, but this would be the only real true peek we could get as to what is really, actually happening out there.
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cacomly (08-08-2018)
#1499
08-05-2018, 08:50 PM
The overall number is almost certainly much lower than is being tossed around for a number of reasons, one of which is that the Softails appear to be immune to the issue, as per the reports on this forum. I used to say we had only one Softail reported sumping here, but after reviewing that poster's comment, it certainly doesn't sound like sumping. He reported that there was no power loss, no high revs, the engine wasn't hot, and he didn't mention any burnt oil smell. He said that his bike was leaking oil from the lifter covers, and that the dealership diagnosed it as sumping. But it sounds like it could just as easily be a case of the service writer using the wrong term to describe the issue.
Yes the service bulletin says that Softails could be affected. But we have never heard about it here, in a year.
What we hear about all the time is wethead Stage IV CVO bikes sumping. I doubt very many of those are sold each year, but they seem to sump very frequently. I wouldn't be surprised if the percentage on those particular configurations was substantial. If someone were to say that 20% of wethead CVO Stage IV bikes were sumping, I would have to say that I would find that believable.
As far as hiding it, this isn't some political conspiracy, this is a public company with very active competition. If tens of thousands of bikes were having engines replaced, repeatedly, that would probably impact earnings and profitability so severely that it would have to be called out in their public filings and reports. If there were hundreds of sumped bikes sitting in dealer repair shops getting engines replaced, Indian would be singing that story to the heavens. It took them, what, less than a couple of hours to capitalize on Harley's declaration of moving some production overseas because of the tariffs. I mean, they had ads out within a day IIRC. If there was truly a catastrophic company-ending disaster of failing engines everywhere, how have they not said a word? Where are the Moto journalists on this?
Sumping is a real issue. No way in hell would I buy an M8 Ultra and put a Stage IV kit on it. That seems like a highly risky proposition. In fact, I wouldn't want to put a Stage IV on any touring M8. But after following this issue extensively, and digging into the real numbers, I am now seriously entertaining the idea of Stage IV for my Softail, and I am taking my M8 Softail cross-country in a few weeks and I have absolutely zero concerns that my Stage II Softail 114 will sump. Zero.
If it does, I will share the story. I will admit if I am wrong.
But I still think the overall picture being painted here is simply not reasonable and not supported by any dealers, by the ratio of reports here, by the financial disclosure documents, or by the end user reports of riding groups and HOG groups.
It does happen, yes. It is an outrageous problem for their premium CVO buyers. But without some dealers coming out and saying they've personally seen 100 bikes in their service department for sumping issues, there is no rational way to justify the estimates we are hearing of things like "10% of all M8's are having engine failures due to sumping." I think based on the reports we have we could better guess at something like 0% of Softails, 1-2% of touring bikes, and 10-20% of wethead Stage IV CVOs have sumped. Those types of numbers would seem to fit the available evidence (such as it is).
Yes the service bulletin says that Softails could be affected. But we have never heard about it here, in a year.
What we hear about all the time is wethead Stage IV CVO bikes sumping. I doubt very many of those are sold each year, but they seem to sump very frequently. I wouldn't be surprised if the percentage on those particular configurations was substantial. If someone were to say that 20% of wethead CVO Stage IV bikes were sumping, I would have to say that I would find that believable.
As far as hiding it, this isn't some political conspiracy, this is a public company with very active competition. If tens of thousands of bikes were having engines replaced, repeatedly, that would probably impact earnings and profitability so severely that it would have to be called out in their public filings and reports. If there were hundreds of sumped bikes sitting in dealer repair shops getting engines replaced, Indian would be singing that story to the heavens. It took them, what, less than a couple of hours to capitalize on Harley's declaration of moving some production overseas because of the tariffs. I mean, they had ads out within a day IIRC. If there was truly a catastrophic company-ending disaster of failing engines everywhere, how have they not said a word? Where are the Moto journalists on this?
Sumping is a real issue. No way in hell would I buy an M8 Ultra and put a Stage IV kit on it. That seems like a highly risky proposition. In fact, I wouldn't want to put a Stage IV on any touring M8. But after following this issue extensively, and digging into the real numbers, I am now seriously entertaining the idea of Stage IV for my Softail, and I am taking my M8 Softail cross-country in a few weeks and I have absolutely zero concerns that my Stage II Softail 114 will sump. Zero.
If it does, I will share the story. I will admit if I am wrong.
But I still think the overall picture being painted here is simply not reasonable and not supported by any dealers, by the ratio of reports here, by the financial disclosure documents, or by the end user reports of riding groups and HOG groups.
It does happen, yes. It is an outrageous problem for their premium CVO buyers. But without some dealers coming out and saying they've personally seen 100 bikes in their service department for sumping issues, there is no rational way to justify the estimates we are hearing of things like "10% of all M8's are having engine failures due to sumping." I think based on the reports we have we could better guess at something like 0% of Softails, 1-2% of touring bikes, and 10-20% of wethead Stage IV CVOs have sumped. Those types of numbers would seem to fit the available evidence (such as it is).
Its a reasonable assumption that the incidence rate of sumping has been reduced over time with running changes made on the factory line. The highest incident is likely 2017 Touring bikes that came off the line in late 2016. Less on bikes that came off the line in the Spring of 2017. Even less with the M8s coming off the line in late 2017 which included Touring and Softails.
But clearly HD knew there was still an inherit design issue with the Touring and Softails since they updated SB 1450 in Nov 2017 to SPECIFICALLY include the Softails and all STOCK M8s. Not just stage IIIs and IVs like the earlier versions of SB1450.
I believe the best chance you have to NOT experience sumping with an M8 is to have a bike that was built after about April of 2018. If you have an earlier built bike, I’m afraid you are still at risk of sumping. The risk gets higher the closer your bike was built to the Fall of 2016.
Having been through 4 M8 engines, 3 that sumped, I have followed this issue quite closely and believe that almost any early M8 bike can be made to sump. Laters bikes would take more unusual load and rpm circumstances or uograding to stage IV and working the bike hard.
Its my personal opinion (and just my personal opinion) that HD has finally gotten their arms around the issue which is why we aren’t reading about bikes built after April 2018 that have sumped. I also believe the 2019s should be far more trouble-free (and therefore carry a far higher resale value) than earlier M8s.
I’m still of the opinion that the incident rate of sumping of all M8s produced is in the solid single digit over the 2yr production. There have been 280000 M8s produced to date. 96000 in 2017 and 184000 produced in 2018. . The rate of sumping was greater for earlier bikes but still exists for all M8s built through the Spring of this year. You can pick whatever rate you want but its 100% when it happens to your bike.
And its my view it can happen to almost any of these bikes if you put the bike in the right circumstances.
Last edited by Heatwave; 08-05-2018 at 09:03 PM.
#1500
08-05-2018, 09:50 PM
Yes, certainly. Although not double, it would be 2/3 touring and 1/3 Softails, since in 2017 100% of the M8's were touring, and in 2018 it was more 50/50.
So yes I am absolutely saying that the ratio of sumping is not only greatly increased, but in fact is pretty much exclusive to, the touring bikes. That's why I say it grossly inflates the % of M8's that are sumping because that ignores a huge swath of M8's that are very likely never sumping.
My point is: 5% (or more) of all M8's sumping? Seems preposterous. 5% of TOURING bikes sumping? Seems way way high to me, but I am open to the argument. 5% of wethead CVO Stage IVs sumping? I would find that believable, and would suspect that number might be even low.
So add up all the never-sumping Softails, all the infrequent-sumping oil-cooled touring M8's, all the wethead M8's, and all the highly-sumping CVOs, all together, and divide the # of total reports, and I think you'll be looking at more like 1% overall.
I do not think the reports of sumping are fake. But I do think that a rational review of the "data" (such as it is) shows that the claims of the overall prevalence of the issue is greatly being exaggerated (just like the internet tends to lead to the exaggeration of everything). It used to be that stories of failures were only ever heard about locally. There might be 800 sumping across the country, and that would be one per dealer, and most folks would never even give it a thought. Now, with the internet, each and every one of us hears about all 800 sumping and MY GOD, THIS IS THE BIGGEST DISASTER IN THE HISTORY OF THE COMPANY!!! But it isn't; it's the same 1 per dealer.
So yes, we should have the discussion, yes we should share the symptoms so we know what to look for. Sumping happens and it is a disaster for those who it happens to and it is completely unacceptable. But still... We've heard of maybe 50 reports, total? 100 if we're being very generous? With, what are we saying, 2000 touring bikes sold every week? More bikes out there will increase the number of reports, sure. But that is still a rate of 0.02% or so. We have to multiply that by at least 10x, if not 100x, to account for the proportion of hdforum members to the # of touring bike buyers, but even if we allow a 100x factor, that is still just a rate of 2% OF BIKES SOLD THAT WEEK. That doesn't count the existing body of, what, 300,000 bikes out there! We would have to turn to our 50-100 reports total to accommodate the entire body of M8 bikes, and even at 100 that would represent a sumping rate of .0003%. Even if we allow that for every report we hear here, there are 3,000 sumpers we don't hear about, that still brings the overall rate to just 1%. Do you see why I say that a rate of 15% or even 5% just seems so incredibly unrealistic?
Someone with way too much time on their hands could get us real data by stationing themselves at a major Harley dealer with a huge service department, and make notes of the complaints people report at the service counter. How many report loss of power and burnt oil smells? Or, if you have an incredible relationship with a dealer, ask to see the service intake records for a week. How many M8's are listed with sumping symptoms? This is unlikely data to actually get, but this would be the only real true peek we could get as to what is really, actually happening out there.
So yes I am absolutely saying that the ratio of sumping is not only greatly increased, but in fact is pretty much exclusive to, the touring bikes. That's why I say it grossly inflates the % of M8's that are sumping because that ignores a huge swath of M8's that are very likely never sumping.
My point is: 5% (or more) of all M8's sumping? Seems preposterous. 5% of TOURING bikes sumping? Seems way way high to me, but I am open to the argument. 5% of wethead CVO Stage IVs sumping? I would find that believable, and would suspect that number might be even low.
So add up all the never-sumping Softails, all the infrequent-sumping oil-cooled touring M8's, all the wethead M8's, and all the highly-sumping CVOs, all together, and divide the # of total reports, and I think you'll be looking at more like 1% overall.
I do not think the reports of sumping are fake. But I do think that a rational review of the "data" (such as it is) shows that the claims of the overall prevalence of the issue is greatly being exaggerated (just like the internet tends to lead to the exaggeration of everything). It used to be that stories of failures were only ever heard about locally. There might be 800 sumping across the country, and that would be one per dealer, and most folks would never even give it a thought. Now, with the internet, each and every one of us hears about all 800 sumping and MY GOD, THIS IS THE BIGGEST DISASTER IN THE HISTORY OF THE COMPANY!!! But it isn't; it's the same 1 per dealer.
So yes, we should have the discussion, yes we should share the symptoms so we know what to look for. Sumping happens and it is a disaster for those who it happens to and it is completely unacceptable. But still... We've heard of maybe 50 reports, total? 100 if we're being very generous? With, what are we saying, 2000 touring bikes sold every week? More bikes out there will increase the number of reports, sure. But that is still a rate of 0.02% or so. We have to multiply that by at least 10x, if not 100x, to account for the proportion of hdforum members to the # of touring bike buyers, but even if we allow a 100x factor, that is still just a rate of 2% OF BIKES SOLD THAT WEEK. That doesn't count the existing body of, what, 300,000 bikes out there! We would have to turn to our 50-100 reports total to accommodate the entire body of M8 bikes, and even at 100 that would represent a sumping rate of .0003%. Even if we allow that for every report we hear here, there are 3,000 sumpers we don't hear about, that still brings the overall rate to just 1%. Do you see why I say that a rate of 15% or even 5% just seems so incredibly unrealistic?
Someone with way too much time on their hands could get us real data by stationing themselves at a major Harley dealer with a huge service department, and make notes of the complaints people report at the service counter. How many report loss of power and burnt oil smells? Or, if you have an incredible relationship with a dealer, ask to see the service intake records for a week. How many M8's are listed with sumping symptoms? This is unlikely data to actually get, but this would be the only real true peek we could get as to what is really, actually happening out there.
But I’d also be interested in how many bikes are sumping & recovering, I bet the number is even higher than reported total complete failures, people here are knowledgeable about the issue, you think the vast majority of buyers & non forum members know what’s going on if it happens to them & then the bike starts running fine again? How many of those buyers will even bother going to the dealer & of those that do go when they describe the problem the dealer says: can’t replicate. But that’s also sumping even if not reported. Every single M8, seems like especially touring is capable of sumping but it’s only happened so far to 1% of bikes? Don’t believe it & even if it was 1 or 2% it’s likely to be much much higher over time especially as guys get more & more miles & more & more comfortable wringing out their bikes, unfortunately I bet a decent portion of the new bikes out there guys are still in the break-in period & following break in procedure/3k rpms & not running hard on the highway. A lot of guys just don’t put on miles for a while. Or they’ll sell a used bike w/ 500-1000 miles to a guy that rides aggressively &......
But to go back to how many reports there are here & we use your 2-3 reports a week here that’s 104-156 a year, if it’s really just 1% that could/would mean there are 10-15,000 M8 touring members that follow the section & post & all of the people that had the problem actually stepped forward to say so here. I have no idea but does it seem like there’s that many active posters in the M8 section?
RE: The part about it being exaggerated on the internet; that is kinda my original point about not remembering another modern car or bike model w/ the # of reported burnt down brand new engines. I’ve only been a member here a couple of years but use the same id at a dozen or so car & bike forums, some where I’ve been a member 10, 12, years, etc. Some of the sports car forums are for numerous manufactures. Those other forums are all the net too & just cannot remember another situation w/ engines like this or to be honest anything resembling this. So when I hear this is “normal” or “not new” just sounds weird to me.
Regarding camping at a Harley dealer & getting full cooperation for your black op. think we’d need a Ethan Hunt or even better the Baba Yaga himself John Wick. But I’d like to see that;
Service manager - You’re back John?
John- Afraid so.
Service Manger - Sumped again huh?
John - yeah.. I lost everything until that bike arrived at my doorstep. A final gift from my wife. In that moment I received some semblance of hope,,, and the MoCo took that from me.
Service Manager - Oh God
John - Stole that from me, killed that from me! People keep asking if I’m back, but now yeah I’m thinking, I’m back. So you can either hand over a 2019 that is right or you can die screaming alongside my sumped 2017.