$1.5B sounds impressive until you put it in context.

Here's some figures from the 12/31/23 Balance Sheet (Fiscal Year Ending in December) *Figures are millions.
Total Assets Chart for Total Assets annual trend. 12,141 (That's $12.1 billion.)
Total Liabilities Chart for Total Liabilities annual trend. 8,888 (That's $8.9 billion.)

For 2024, analysts estimate HOG will generate revenues of $4.6B, a decrease of 20.37% over the prior year's results.
For 2024, analysts estimate HOG will earn $4.40 non-GAAP per share, a decrease of 9.63% over the prior year's non-GAAP results.

The analysts are folks that do investment research for a living; they are number crunching, market analyzing types - guided by neither passion nor prejudice.

Sneaker Boy answers to a Board who answer to shareholders. Some where distantly removed from that arena are those of us who just like the motorcycles. We judge Sneaker Boy and his decisions with our purchase power. Some of his decisions, at the touch point of the dealership experience leave some less than enthusiastic some places sometimes.

 

1.5 billion for the quarter down 5%, your numbers are for the year I believe. As I said big companies always increase no matter how much they make. I realize it is about stock price and getting people to invest. I am just not panicing HD will go under.

My other point, is Honda is no where even close. As I suspect the other Japs. BMW I believe has strong global sales outside of US.

My concern whether doing good or bad, would be a foreign company buying them, if the dollar was weak. Look at Bud and Miller, Chrysler.

 

What this report tells us is what everyone knows….a slow but continual slide of the brand. Everything using the Rev Max is continuing to slide and the Live Wire has been a money pit from the start. The Live Wire may prove to be the most expensive mistake in Harley’s history. Hundreds of million pumped into this giant loser.

Harley needs another traditional engine that is smaller…like a baby M8. The Rev Max was too much of a departure from the crown jewel that makes Harley what it is….45 degree twins, single pin crank, stroke longer than bore size, firing timing, etc.

They can keep the Rev Max for the Adventure crowd and those who want the absolute best performance but the market is saying it doesn’t want it at Harley’s price point or with all the substandard fit and finishes ar that price point. We know they dropped the pice on 975 Sportsters for 2024 by around $2K to help but I don’t think its going to work. There is still way too much plastic on those bikes and it is way too cluttered overall. The design has no mechanical beauty. The sound and soul is gone.

I say try again…a baby M8 that is oil cooled like the Softail lineup but in smaller and lighter Sportster. Make it a solid mount like the Softail lineup so the frame is lighter and less expensive to make. I believe a 975 and 1275 M8 like this would sell. Fit and finish would need to be back to what Harley is known for…just like the Softails. And pricing would need to be less than Softails and competitive for their size.

The good news from this report is the Grand American Touring bikes seem to be in demand and keeping things healthy. I think the new design has been well received and demand should continue forward as riders look to move off of rushmore bikes and get on an M8. A lot of those bikes are either going to need an engine overhaul or replaced.

 

Electric vehicles are stumbling, for sure. But they are a big part of the future, Will livewire pay off in time, I don't know. If they would have put it in something bigger it might have done better. Bags, windshield. Not a touring bike, but something useful. Though people buy little cruisers still.

You need to cater to the dying demographic, but you still need to look the future. Maybe panamerica, a bike with technology, when worked out, might play a part. Have enough boomers died that something buelish might sell?

 

The Live Wire Charging station at Tobacco Road Harley in Raleigh has been Out of Service since I can remember. With an additional 117 bikes on the road Q1 (nationally?) I suspect that won't change anytime soon.

I pay attention to financing offers from automotive and motorcycle manufacturers as an indication of sales health. It seems everyone is offering special financing. It's not just Harley looking down the road.

 

deleted curmudgeon response. why bother

 

In 1999 I stopped wearing the bar and shield altogether.
Today I wear no branded gear whatsoever.

Harley Davidson stopped supporting my motorcycle and I stopped supporting their company.
Their company, not mine.

 

Harley gets credit on Wall Street for sticking to their 5 year strategic plan they announced in 2021 i.e. improve their margins by focusing on their core products i.e. touring bikes/trikes, large cruisers and keep promoting adventure bikes.
They beat both sales and eps estimates for the last quarter and reaffirmed their forward guidance. The overseas segments were very weak with the exception of Latin America and the North American market was solid. The very strong US Dollar will be a drag on exports for multinational corporations for the time being. Analysts are estimating EPS growth of 13-15% for the next 3 years and the average rating is a buy on the stock.
Harley sales are not showroom sales but channel sales and they purposely slowed down the dealer inventories last quarter and they are picking up again.
My personal opinion is they stumbled in their transition from the 2022 touring platform to the 2024 but the new touring bikes are being well received now and should help going forward.

 

I've gone slightly the other way. When I started riding, I wore little harley stuff. Harley riders could be dicks to jap riders, now most came from there. Plus you got the guys who wear it top to bottom, and the guys who don;t ride, which may be part of more than one category. After years, I realize i have a bunch of them, and have to face facts, I like harleys.

I got a bootleg $5 hat. But rule is no more than one branded item on at a time. Don't wear it often, but I faced facts, I do own harleys.

 

Well something isn't adding up IMHO. March 2024 stock price was a high of $43.94 per share, today it's $35.03 per share. To me that a drop of 20% since they announced the 1st quarter sales, so someone sure thinks its not all rosie at HD. While I do not believe their going to close the doors, I'm sure there is going to be more tighten of the belt so to speak at HD.