This is all very true. However a company that's not growing is dying in today's market. It's really as simple as that. In today's global economy, a company will not survive even if it can tread water. Harley has had declining revenue, retail sales and profits for 5+ years. And its stock has been cut in half over that time period. I would say both the market and the stockholders have actually shown immense restraint and patience in waiting for the company to return to growth. Much of that patience and restraint was a direct result of having a very loyal customer base.

In 2014, HD sold 271,000 motorcycles. For full year 2019, according to their Q1 2019 financial reporting, HD is projecting unit sales of 217,000 to 222,000. They have been overly optimistic in the past and I believe they will be overly optimistic again with final YE 2019 unit sales between 210,000 and 215,000. I believe both Wall Street and their customers will await the launch of the 2020 bikes, Livewire, Pan America and anything else that HD can throw against the wall to find out what sticks that can return the company to growth.

A year from now when the Q1 2020 HOG Financials are reported, if there is still a decline in sales year over year, then I predict that HD's days as a publicly traded, stand alone company will be numbered. Mark my words. The Board will first try to prevent a potential takeover by firing the entire Sr. Management which will help the stock somewhat, but it will do nothing to stem the sales decline (assuming there is one). Once the firings end, the company will still be bought out. Or the reverse is also likely, they will be bought out and Sr. Management will be fired shortly thereafter.

Alot is riding on the 2020 launches and returning the company to growth. If the 2020 launches fail, I'm afraid the patience of both customers and Wall Street will be over. If the 2020 launches are successful (my personal hope), then the company will be given plenty of time to extend whichever new products are contributing to the growth. But GROWTH will be the only way for HD to avoid some rather grim alternative outcomes. Management as well as most employees in the company are fully aware of what's at stake with the 2020 product launches this August.

 

Up is up and down is down, and no matter how you spin the numbers, the market doesn't care about the excuses.

 

Actually, did better than projections. And, as of today, their stocks closed in the positive.

I guess that depends on how you look at it. One article said the same thing, but clarified by saying that they didn't so AS BAD as they had projected. That is the way some of this last QTR financial statement is being interpreted. So they didn't do better at all. THey did worse than before.

 

Heatwave, your sig pic shows that you own two CVO bikes. You obviously didn't have a career at minimum wage, so you have a pretty good idea of how the business world works. The problem you are facing in debating a lot of folks here is that they DIDN'T have a career in business, so you are getting a lot of ignorant attitude thrown back at you for your remarks. Just as I had done at me.

I really don't understand why it is so hard to accept that a company with declining sales year after year is dying/failing. Only someone that has never been in business in the corporate world would not accept that statement as the truth. The way business people look at a company is simple: If you aren't growing and increasing, you're going backwards. Harley has been going backwards for a long time now.

Things are tough for the motorcycle industry as a whole. Harley is trying to bring new products to the market to bring in a new customer base. I'm all for that, and I hope they are successful. Unfortunately, they think the new products alone will help pull them out of their slump. I do not believe that will be all they need to do. Harley management also needs to drill down on their TACTICS for an owner AFTER THE SALE....the ENTIRE ownership experience. I believe these old tactics is what is hurting Harley as much as anything else. I'll give you just ONE example of what I'm talking about.

Harley markets a new bike with Bluetooth capability. Everyone goes wild about it and buys them. Then reality sets in. Yes, you got the bike with bluetooth CAPABILITY, BUT, it's not Bluetooth ready yet. You still have to buy something called a WHIM that allows you to actually USE the bluetooth headset you ALSO had to buy because the bike came with neither of those add-ons. They are categorized as accessories. Harley even included a corded headset at one time with the bike. Now to make the bike work AS ADVERTISED, you have to buy the WHIM and the BLuetooth headset, and have installed. Then with the final act of gouging, the dealer charges you to have the whim flashed! Is there no end to greed with Harley anymore? For comparison, Honda's Goldwing is a Bluetooth Apple CarPlay system too, but Honda has the system interface built in to the motorcycle. The owner doesn't have to add the interface as an ACCESSORY. They do have to buy the headset of choice, but's that all. This is just one example of price nit-picking that up until now Harley has been a master at. I personally believe tactics like these have driven customers away over the years. I believe that this is the biggest factor in getting a new customer base in the future and RETAINING them.

I'm not saying that I won't possibly look at buying another Harley in the future, but if things don't change in that TOTAL Ownership Experience with the B.S. TACTICS, I have bought my last one. There are just too many other viable options out there now. BMW is also an expensive bike to buy, and the regular maintenance costs are expensive too. But they treat their customers well and don't nit-pick them. That is why most BMW owners would not buy a Harley, and that's a shame. They obviously have the extra cash to do so. THat is a market segment of buyers that Harley is missing...all due to the Harley Attitude.

 

I would go buy the Honda

 

You're onto something there. If Harley dealerships would get over the "Holier than thou" attitude towards their product than things should start to turn in their favors. As of right now, going all the way back to the 90's, Harley's culture has had this attitude that if you buy our bike you're now better than every other motorcycle out there. Yes I know it's all marketing, but that needs to break in order for the company to turn from a boutique brand for a selected group of society into mass-market appeal from all motorcyclists, current or otherwise.

 

Exactly. And for comparison, that expensive BMW costs $28k compared to $44k for a CVO Limited. And for $16k in savings with the BMW, you get a backup gear, far more power, a 3 year warranty, electronic ride modes and far more features than the CVO. The CVO offers a nicer paint job but even the paint has become utterly boring on the CVOs in recent years. Someone please tell me what value you get from the top-of-the-line CVO that justifies the extra $16,000 over a BMW Grand America?

 

Yup. They projected totally shitty profit numbers, and actually made not-quite-as-shitty profit numbers.

It's like bragging about being the world's tallest midget.

 

 

You aren't comparing apples to apples:

Its the BMW K1600 GTL that you want to compare with the CVO Limited, not the Grand America (23K+ base)...the K1600 GTL when built to mimic a CVO LTD could very easily top 35K...