Based on the information on the front page (click here to read), how low would the stock price of HD need to drop before you (whether a first time or experienced investor) would buy stock in a company that drives your passion?

I know quite a few people who bought ford stock when it went under 2 bucks a share, and now its looking at dropping below a dollar. however, fords stock has been very low, for a very long time, where HOG has been in the 30+ range for quite a while...so these stock prices are tempting to me.

 

Bought 250 shares today... Let's get on board and keep the MOCO healthy!

 

I am no authority on stocks and whether to buy or sell. With a 52 Week High of $50.04 per share, and considering HOG is trading at about 12.00 per share, I would guess it to be a steal. As long as HOG does not go under, you will atleast make you money back and then some.

I set a purchase order to purchase 200 shares when the market opens Monday.

 

I know a lot of people getting in for the first time at the moment. I spent the day with a Bank Manager on his day off and he said; at the moment; all he's doing is showing clients how to buy stock on the net through the bank. Apparently, he can't get any work done because he's only 1 of 3 that can set up the paperwork.

Here in the Canaries, the banking and financial system ain't too sophisticated, and unlike yous guys Stateside; the average Joe don't mess with the market.

Anyhow, I keep telling people, do what you want, just don't invest any cash you're not willing to part with for at least 2 years.

 

Be careful buying stock because you like the company, you can easily become blinded to the risks because all you can see are the positives of the company. When you own stock such as harley and your a rider you can become very easily emotionally attached, which whether consciously or not will impair your judgement to sell when the time comes.
I just got done doing research on investors who become emotionally attached and the repercussions for my masters in investment management.

David

 

Sounds like a great time to buy to me. Wish I had more to invest.

 

In the past few weeks, I have dumped big bucks in my company stock which as I mentioned in another thread, is similar to H-D in pricing and the current market downturn. I know this company is not going anywhere. Neither is Harley-Davidson. So... I am buying a large amount of H-D stock in the very near future. When you only have to hit the $10 to $15 dollar mark or whatever it is to make money, pretty sure bet compared to when the same stock was trading up in the 40's and above.

I'll let Harley buy me a new scooter in a few years.

 

With the disclaimer that no one knows where the economy or market is heading in the near future - could be really bad or just a normal recession -

I like it. Geez. Earnings per share $3.25 - PE ratio about 3.5. Last dividend $1.06. Price per share after hours Sat morning $11.90. 86% of stock is owned by institutions.

HOG is sitting on gobs of cash and is nowhere near to being in trouble. Sales are down, but 2008 profits still projected to be around $700 million. Dividend yield around 10%.

I had to pull the trigger on it. Even if it goes down more before it (I hope) goes up, it's just too cheap imho.

$.02

 

I bought Harley stock for the same reason I bought my Harley motorcycle ... I like it!

Okay, now to get serious ... I'm betting my JD and PhD in business that HD will outlast this little economic downturn. No, better yet, I'm betting my retirement account that HD will get better. So I'm literally putting my money where my mouth is.

Let's put this whole HD stock thing in perspective. Investing in any stock is risky, but it's also a question of what you buy and how long you're willing to hold it until there is profit. All the worry worts today are looking for short term profits. Those in it for the Long investment are just going to buy more stock. I'm in that group. Here's why.

Is HD a risky investment? Sure, but I guess that can be said about any company right now. But let's be honest, does anyone really think HD is going to close in the next 2 years because of bad motorcycle sells? The reality is that the economy will hit HD hard, just like everyone else, but it is not going to shut them down. They make way too much money on Trademark items alone to short them in less than 5 years. That doesn't mean they will not be hurt, we're already seeing the impact today. What it does mean is that any stock buy of HD now is for LONG term investment, not short.

Let's look at this this way. Harley 52 week high is just over $50/share. That's not bad, especially when you look at the long term charts. HD stock was around $12 a share back in 1998. The beauty of this is that the stock has split at least 4 times in that same 10 year period. So while the stock price has climbed fairly steadily it has also doubled and tripled in value because of splits. History tells us that it will do it again in the next 10 years.

So, to put this in perspective, if you're looking for short term profits then stay away from any stocks right now. You'll likely do better over the next 6 months with a regular old CD from the local bank. Be happy with the 3%+ return on a 6 month or 1 year buy, but stay away from stocks ... including HD.

On the other hand, if you are under 55 years of age and can afford to invest for 2+ years then go HD for the Long term profit. The $50 price is about mid-point from what it was back in 2000 or so. Those that are really losing are the ones that bought in the 2000 to 2008 period and are now bailing out from fear. Let 'em go! They will regret it in a couple years.

Those with investment ***** will continue to buy through this next 12 months. Don't sell stocks like HD, even if you've lost $40 or more a share. Again, history will show us that a company like HD will come up just like the economy. They've outlasted a GREAT Depression (which lasted 43 months, by the way), 2 world wars, and AMC. That's a pretty good track record.

Oh yeah ... don't let the Ford/GM or the banking debacle throw you off track. Ford, Chrysler and GM have been in trouble long before this downturn. They could read the writing on the wall back in the '70s. Look at the value of Ford/GM between 1975 and 2005 ... then look at what HD did in the same period. Same can be said for the banks. Compare apples to apples. You're better of comparing HD to a company like Lincoln Electric or Coca-Cola.

 

I like the way you think Doc.