U.S. Economy Grew 4.9%, Powered by Consumers

Gross domestic product grew at a seasonally and inflation-adjusted 4.9% annual rate in the third quarter, much stronger than economists were anticipating just a few months ago.
From WSJ this morning.

I think the CEO picked the wrong time to hatch his plan to charge more and sell less as a way to maximize value for shareholders which I believe is his job. People aren't buying his products. Sales of apparel and licensing fees are continuing their slide, too.

Personally, I don't expect the GDP and jobs to continue growing like this. If that is the case, it will get worse for HD before it gets better.

 

Hard to reconcile when people say the economy is bad and the GDP numbers for Q3 this morning show a growth of 4.9%. Consumer spending grew 4%. This despite a price index (inflation) of 3.0%, or 2.4% without food and energy. That means that in nominal dollars, the GPD grew by almost 8%. The consumer keeps spending and adding debt. That will end in tears...
Yes, things are finally slowing down in all industries and businesses, we might see higher unemployment, bad debts...
Prices of new and used bikes will have to come down a lot... I see the inventory of new bikes in all dealers is finally high after 2 years of having few bikes. For those looking to buy, there will be good deals to have...

 

The next 12-24 months will be interesting as the Fed continues to raise rates until enought folks are out of work that demand falls and pricess fall. Got a call from a HD sales guy following up on a "what's my trade" worth inquiry trying to push a new bike, told him I had cash set aside for a '23 or '24 but was waiting for prices to fall, he did not comprehend. Won't be long before they start to deal.
This morning my coffee got cold, f'n Joe Biden...

 

Harley sells a good product at world class prices. I'm not paying $50 for a shirt made in China. Fire the board and take the company private

 

Well he did make sure they produced a bike he wanted to ride. He has been on the board long enough to shape the product line and being at the top means his influence was likely stronger.

Still with a rising GDP it really smacks their narrative at Harley that people are not spending as much. The Q&A after the presentation was interesting on one aspect. someone called them out on the bloating inventory pointing to the CEO's claim that this number coming down was a big goal of his but it has increased dramatically in the last 18 months. They tried to play it off on the shut down earlier this year preventing them from having the ideal product mix.

All this is good news for buyers, but only buyers who don't want to sell off their existing Harley.

 

I've speculated in here several times that all this has the stench of pre-posturing for a "take-over"; in other words I think HD wants to divest and is casting about for offers.

Per Investor.gov, we could see:

• Another company or individual make a tender offer to buy all or most of the company’s publicly held shares;
• The company could merge with another company; or
• The company could declare a reverse stock split that reduces the number of shareholders.

At one time I thought one of the the Japanese companies might propose a merger, but now I get the feeling it will be a Chinese conglomerate [although a longshot chance is that an Indian or Thai group comes to the fore].

 

Here are the important numbers. Don't be fooled by the 2023 Grand Touring Numbers improving over 2022 - 2022 was a dreadful year.

What is important is that the Revolution Max lineup is not picking up the slack from dropping the previous generation and the Pan America just isn't selling anymore. However it does do better than Livewire!

 

I see the Moco is going out of business again. Who had Q3 in the office pool? <----(Bone Doc, the sarcasm button is fixed)
Although...More defaulted loans out there now than ever.

 

In a previous life I worked in new business / product development. Presenting those charts to my corporate masters would not have been a career enhancing move. Seppuku.

 

I get your irony, but events are different this time around you must admit. A foreign national is the CEO, with a management team and board of directors stacked from top to bottom with green woke DEI social justice warriors whose innermost desire is the elimination of the internal combustion engine (the very product they produce LOL what a bizarre situation) in order to save the planet. Does not bode well, but I hope the optimism that underlies your post (i.e. they always survive and come back strong and we pessimists are goombahs) proves correct.