The last time we had an economy like this....
#1
The last time we had an economy like this....
Harkley was selling out of bikes and there was a long wait to get one. Used bikes sold for original cost. Back during the dot-com days, I sold an FXR for more than I paid for it to a Swede who shipped it back home. But because of the greedy Harley dealer in Vegas at the time, I bought Honda Shadows for the next 10 years until Harley became affordable again with discounts. Now there are new 16 on the floor. Resale is in the tank.
I don't see that in this heated economy. Harley is still struggling. Which makes me think; what will happen to Harley when we enter the inevitable cyclic recession?
I don't see that in this heated economy. Harley is still struggling. Which makes me think; what will happen to Harley when we enter the inevitable cyclic recession?
Last edited by TenMidgets; 06-17-2018 at 11:51 AM.
#2
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The difference is "supply and demand."
"Harkley" has OVERproduced their bikes thus flooding the market far beyond anticipated demand. This kills demand, and the used bike market as it's flooded with bikes for no one to ride.
Now, "Harkley" is trying to create demand by teaching riding to prospective customers. This is a band aide on a compound fracture. While it may put some butts on seats, it'll not be effective to the extent that "Harkley" needs it to be.
So, what does "Harkley" do? They reduce quality to lower cost per unit to prop up profits. This looks good to uneducated stock holders. The stockholders don't actually know the Harkley is doing this, but we riders know it. Again, remember, most of the "Wall St" bunch are uneducated with regards to what "Harkley" is doing.
"Harkley" has OVERproduced their bikes thus flooding the market far beyond anticipated demand. This kills demand, and the used bike market as it's flooded with bikes for no one to ride.
Now, "Harkley" is trying to create demand by teaching riding to prospective customers. This is a band aide on a compound fracture. While it may put some butts on seats, it'll not be effective to the extent that "Harkley" needs it to be.
So, what does "Harkley" do? They reduce quality to lower cost per unit to prop up profits. This looks good to uneducated stock holders. The stockholders don't actually know the Harkley is doing this, but we riders know it. Again, remember, most of the "Wall St" bunch are uneducated with regards to what "Harkley" is doing.
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Yamaharley (06-21-2018)
#3
So, what does "Harkley" do? They reduce quality to lower cost per unit to prop up profits. This looks good to uneducated stock holders. The stockholders don't actually know the Harkley is doing this, but we riders know it. Again, remember, most of the "Wall St" bunch are uneducated with regards to what "Harkley" is doing.
They may use some shoddier bearings here and there, but that me be as much about availability of good stuff as it is HD cheaping out.
By all accounts, there are some serious teething problems with the new models, but to me, those sound like design or production issues rather than using a cheap part where just using a better quality one would solve the problem.
Where HDs used to be just nice to look out, now some of them are actually fun to ride. Not that this matters much as humans are just evolving into more indoorsey types who like to take pictures of their food and share them with friends over Facebook or whatever.
There was a time when blue collar guys were unionized and made good money. They didn't mind spending more for less to support their fellow American union workers. Them days are gone. HD should probably adjust their prices accordingly. They'll still make a ton more than their competition, because the whole idea is to play dress up with them. And they got WAY more fashion accessories than any other brand.
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#4
So now in addition to foot pegs and luggage racks, the M8 forum is now a political forum?
Last edited by Keithhu; 06-17-2018 at 04:39 PM.
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#5
I disagree. The components on modern Harleys are so much better than yesteryear it ain't even funny. Frames are stiffer, engines are smoother, brakes are stoppier, suspensions aren't filled with goose down.
They may use some shoddier bearings here and there, but that me be as much about availability of good stuff as it is HD cheaping out.
By all accounts, there are some serious teething problems with the new models, but to me, those sound like design or production issues rather than using a cheap part where just using a better quality one would solve the problem.
Where HDs used to be just nice to look out, now some of them are actually fun to ride. Not that this matters much as humans are just evolving into more indoorsey types who like to take pictures of their food and share them with friends over Facebook or whatever.
There was a time when blue collar guys were unionized and made good money. They didn't mind spending more for less to support their fellow American union workers. Them days are gone. HD should probably adjust their prices accordingly. They'll still make a ton more than their competition, because the whole idea is to play dress up with them. And they got WAY more fashion accessories than any other brand.
They may use some shoddier bearings here and there, but that me be as much about availability of good stuff as it is HD cheaping out.
By all accounts, there are some serious teething problems with the new models, but to me, those sound like design or production issues rather than using a cheap part where just using a better quality one would solve the problem.
Where HDs used to be just nice to look out, now some of them are actually fun to ride. Not that this matters much as humans are just evolving into more indoorsey types who like to take pictures of their food and share them with friends over Facebook or whatever.
There was a time when blue collar guys were unionized and made good money. They didn't mind spending more for less to support their fellow American union workers. Them days are gone. HD should probably adjust their prices accordingly. They'll still make a ton more than their competition, because the whole idea is to play dress up with them. And they got WAY more fashion accessories than any other brand.
#7
OP - Not an accurate analogy. This economy just started 6 months ago. It takes awhile for the new jobs to save money up and start spending after low wages and or unemployment. Maybe next spring will see the results of the improving economic conditions now in place. Even for older workers it will take time for their savings interest income to bear fruit and investments. When the bills are finally caught up and there is some disposable income for things that are not necessities then they spend.
It builds like a snow ball rolling downhill getting bigger as it goes.
However, I suspect their will be some evidence in H-D's second quarter results. Maybe enough to silence some of the negative doom and gloom morons.
By the for those that hold the myth that H-D is mostly motor clothes boutique. That division only accounts for roughly 17% of earnings besides the fact from early on H-D had shirts, cap, gloves, shoes and other riding stuff.
"Harley always over produces" Wrong again. Every bike produced was allotted to a dealer and not one unit more. H-D production has never had any bikes leftover in warehouses. By comparison Honda USA for decades has had many model years in their warehouses along with its dealers. It took Honda 6 years to clear out the last 08 VTX 1800's and about the same for the 04/05 Runes. They had to have an auction at the warehouses to accomplish that. They still have a load of the old model Rebel 250's.
It is okay to have an opinion but much better to have an informed opinion.
It builds like a snow ball rolling downhill getting bigger as it goes.
However, I suspect their will be some evidence in H-D's second quarter results. Maybe enough to silence some of the negative doom and gloom morons.
By the for those that hold the myth that H-D is mostly motor clothes boutique. That division only accounts for roughly 17% of earnings besides the fact from early on H-D had shirts, cap, gloves, shoes and other riding stuff.
"Harley always over produces" Wrong again. Every bike produced was allotted to a dealer and not one unit more. H-D production has never had any bikes leftover in warehouses. By comparison Honda USA for decades has had many model years in their warehouses along with its dealers. It took Honda 6 years to clear out the last 08 VTX 1800's and about the same for the 04/05 Runes. They had to have an auction at the warehouses to accomplish that. They still have a load of the old model Rebel 250's.
It is okay to have an opinion but much better to have an informed opinion.
Last edited by lh4x4; 06-17-2018 at 07:02 PM.
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Eccool (06-17-2018)
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#9
Harkley was selling out of bikes and there was a long wait to get one. Used bikes sold for original cost. Back during the dot-com days, I sold an FXR for more than I paid for it to a Swede who shipped it back home. But because of the greedy Harley dealer in Vegas at the time, I bought Honda Shadows for the next 10 years until Harley became affordable again with discounts. Now there are new 16 on the floor. Resale is in the tank.
I don't see that in this heated economy. Harley is still struggling. Which makes me think; what will happen to Harley when we enter the inevitable cyclic recession?
I don't see that in this heated economy. Harley is still struggling. Which makes me think; what will happen to Harley when we enter the inevitable cyclic recession?
#10
...but one thing that's different in this "economy" than I think the "peak" motorcycle sales years of '05/'06 is that alot of your Harley riders are 12-13yrs older, many no longer living, no longer riding or even able to ride. Plus in those 12-13yrs hundreds of thousands, if not a couple million motorcycles were produced since then and probably 80% of those are still being ridden, hence the "motorcycle world" kinda being flooded with excess bikes. Go on Cycle Trader and for instance put in RoadKing as a model search. Last I checked, there were 3600 RKs available, and that was just that one model. There are tens of thousands of used bikes for sale let alone tens of thousands of new bikes for sale. Maybe they need to do like China does, once a motorcycle hits 10yrs old, it's no longer allowed to be licensed for the street & ridden. The motorcycle manufacturers would love that law here!!!