Is a California Ban on Internal Combustion Coming?
As we were cruising into another warm autumn weekend on Friday, the high finance wizards at Bloomberg delivered a proverbial sucker punch to those of us with gasoline in our veins. It seems California Governor Jerry Brown and the head of the State Emission Control Agency have been discussing a ban on internal combustion vehicles.
China, France, England, and other countries have already passed bans that go into effect in 2030 or 2040, and some European cities have usage fines in effect already. California could be the first state to implement a plan that would begin to phase out gasoline-burning vehicles.
California’s smog mandates are like the drunk who is going to stop drinking tomorrow: Tomorrow never comes until it is good and ready.
The Association of Global Automakers, a trade association representing several imported carmakers, said: “We have been working with California on intelligent, market-based approaches to emissions reductions beyond 2025, and we hope that this doesn’t signal an abandonment of that position.”
Lucky for Harley-Davidson fans, the company already has an electric prototype: Project LiveWire.
In 2014, the Project LiveWire prototype was fully functional, and the company invited moto-journalists and even potential customers to test-ride the vehicle. The Project LiveWire bike had about the torque of a Sportster (from zero rpm) and the power of a big twin. But at the time, it had just 50 miles of range. Of course, for comparison, the 2014 Chevy Spark EV, which was introduced around the same time as the LiveWire, only had 85 miles of range, and the 2017 Chevy Bolt EV can go over 225 miles on a charge.
Last May, Harley-Davidson Museum Vice President Bill Davidson confirmed that plans are moving forward to put an electric Harley into production. Thus, the Motor Company is going to become an Electric Motor Company.
So, when will an electric Electra Glide be available at your dealer? Probably not until some time after 2020, by which time, hopefully, battery technology will allow 200-plus miles on a charge. With battery-power density having about tripled in the past five years, Harley may even be able to pack 300 miles into a bike, without requiring riders to have to towa trailer full of batteries.
Now, 300 miles is plenty for the casual weekend rider, but it is never going to satisfy the typical Harley-Davidson touring rider. For that, perhaps Harley could adopt a system like the Tesla Supercharger. These special Tesla-owned charging stations add 170 miles of range to a Tesla in 30 minutes. Could Harley lease space and install chargers at their dealers network and in popular biker hangouts? Stop, grab a bite, and pick up another 200 miles of juice.
When They Outlaw Internal Combustion, Only Outlaws will Ride!
In all honesty, you are never going to have to worry about gas-powered Harleys being outlawed. As long as you can buy gas, you’ll be able to ride what you want.
The state of California has a track record of proposing high-minded and earth-saving regulations, based on their hopes and dreams of a better tomorrow, then changing them to fit reality. For instance, in 1990 the California Air Resources Board (CARB) passed a Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate stating by 1998 two percent of all cars would be ZEV. But, when 1996 rolled around, they realized no one had a viable ZEV on the market, nor were they forthcoming, so they changed the law. Then they revised it again in 1998. In 2001, when the law stipulated 10 percent of fleets had to be ZEV, they moved the goalposts once again.
Yes, California may pass a law that bans the sale of vehicles with internal-combustion engines after 2025. And because several other states also follow California regulations (New York, New England, Oregon, Washington, etc,), the rule may also apply in a lot of other places. But the important thing is, California’s smog mandates are like the drunk who is going to stop drinking tomorrow: Tomorrow never comes until it is good and ready.
And, of course, there is always the California ballot initiative process. If a law like this is rushed through before electric vehicles are viable and affordable, it will lead to a lot of unhappy voters at the polls. Something with a name like “The Affordable Vehicle Viability Act” will be proposed, and voted in, to keep less expensive gas burning cars and bikes on the market. You might as well bundle it with a provision that motorcycles and non-self-driving cars must be allowed access to at least 50 percent of the lanes on any limited access highway. We’re certain the AMA, SEMA, and other enthusiast organizations would support it, as well as plenty of other advocates, and lots of people who are just afraid of autonomous and electric vehicles.
We suggest the California Air Resource Board at the very least name their proposed ZEV regulation “The Motor Law” to appease fans of the band Rush.
