Harley-Davidson Shares Can Double: Fund Manager
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Harley-Davidson Shares Can Double: Fund Manager
Instead of the constant drumbeat of bad news for the MoCo...here, we have a new price target for the stock.
Target price: $70.00
Recent price: $33.27
Timeframe: 2-5 years
An interesting read and I just included the conclusion
Conclusion
"As of now, the market clearly underestimates the potential of the company to grow revenue and completely discounts the management’s expansion plans. We’ve had to assume a decline in revenue of 26% and the free cash flow margin dropping by 52% over the next six years, coupled with a negative terminal growth rate of 2.5% in order to arrive at the current market valuation.
We believe the company has a solid balance sheet, high profitability, one of the best known and most valuable brands in the world, competent management, a clear understanding of what needs to be done, a good roadmap on which to execute and what seems like adequate progress.
The market’s pessimism coupled with the above-stated strengths of the business allow us to think of HD as a coiled spring – lots of potential ready to be released once the market realizes that management is actually delivering. We estimate an uptick in annual revenue to be an inflection point at which the sentiment will become increasingly bullish.
We also believe that our target price of about $70 is a safe bet, since the assumptions that went into it are quite conservative with flat revenue and cash flow margins. We estimate an investment horizon of about three years, as that is sufficient time to see whether HD is on track and its efforts are being highlighted by the market."
https://www.barrons.com/articles/har...er-51559252248
A bit of optimistic good news for Harley Davidson. I hope this fund managers crystal ball is accurate.
Target price: $70.00
Recent price: $33.27
Timeframe: 2-5 years
An interesting read and I just included the conclusion
Conclusion
"As of now, the market clearly underestimates the potential of the company to grow revenue and completely discounts the management’s expansion plans. We’ve had to assume a decline in revenue of 26% and the free cash flow margin dropping by 52% over the next six years, coupled with a negative terminal growth rate of 2.5% in order to arrive at the current market valuation.
We believe the company has a solid balance sheet, high profitability, one of the best known and most valuable brands in the world, competent management, a clear understanding of what needs to be done, a good roadmap on which to execute and what seems like adequate progress.
The market’s pessimism coupled with the above-stated strengths of the business allow us to think of HD as a coiled spring – lots of potential ready to be released once the market realizes that management is actually delivering. We estimate an uptick in annual revenue to be an inflection point at which the sentiment will become increasingly bullish.
We also believe that our target price of about $70 is a safe bet, since the assumptions that went into it are quite conservative with flat revenue and cash flow margins. We estimate an investment horizon of about three years, as that is sufficient time to see whether HD is on track and its efforts are being highlighted by the market."
https://www.barrons.com/articles/har...er-51559252248
A bit of optimistic good news for Harley Davidson. I hope this fund managers crystal ball is accurate.
Grand HDF Member
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 4,921
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From: Deep in the heart of New Jersey
I hope Harley isn't betting the ranch on that new overpriced electric toy they plan to release , to save the company and bring their stock up to $70 a share. Do they ever look at what their competition is doing? Do they really think people are going to spend 30 k on a electric bike, that can be had by their competition for less then half that?. Who are they going to sell those "100 new models" to they plan to release ?. When they can't sell the tried and true models in production now. Harley needs to get rid of their CEO and get someone who can lead the company into the future, not into bankruptcy or a hostel takeover.,,,
Grand HDF Member
Joined: Aug 2013
Posts: 3,669
Likes: 5,063
From: Georgia
I hope Harley isn't betting the ranch on that new overpriced electric toy they plan to release , to save the company and bring their stock up to $70 a share. Do they ever look at what their competition is doing? Do they really think people are going to spend 30 k on a electric bike, that can be had by their competition for less then half that?. Who are they going to sell those "100 new models" to they plan to release ?. When they can't sell the tried and true models in production now. Harley needs to get rid of their CEO and get someone who can lead the company into the future, not into bankruptcy or a hostel takeover.,,,
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