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Correct. The market for 125cc bikes in India and China is huge. So as for "total unit sales", they're going up. But as for big luxo-boat tourers, those are going down. For everyone.
That is exactly the case.
Well, hold up -- there's a difference between "doing well" and "selling a lot of units". Are they making any money on those microbikes? That's one thing I haven't seen, is a total revenue projection for these other makers. They might not be doing well at all. Moving a lot of units is not the same as making a lot of money, if you're only pocketing a couple hundred dollars on each unit.
I agree with you 1,000%.
Those I disagree with are the ones who whine that "the M8 sumping is killing Harley, and now they're going to bring out that stupid electric bike, they should just instead focus on making my Street Glide better." That attitude is insane. Big luxoboat touring bikes are going the way of the motorhome. They used to be wildly popular, now you can't give one away.
It's like cars -- the four-door sedan was the staple for decades. Honda's Accord and Civic were the best-selling cars in America. Now GM and Ford and Chrysler are all getting rid of sedans entirely, because nobody's buying them. Like, seriously, nobody. The only "car" Ford makes anymore is the Mustang; everything else is an SUV or pickup (and in the bike world, that would be the Adventure Bike).
The Pan America is Harley's future. A Harley-ized adventure bike. The Ultra Limited is on its way to the dustbin of history, just like the Lincoln Continental or the big luxo-boat Cadillacs. The market is not there anymore. Harley is absolute king of a dying market, and their bikes are better than they ever have been, the Softail lineup is drastically better than the Dyna and old Softail lineup, but they're still 4-door sedans in an SUV/Pickup Truck world.
And they know it. Which is why they teased the products they did - the LiveWire, the Pan America, and the two little electric bikes. The Harley Faithful will stomp their feet and cry about "but muh Street Glide!" but the reality is that the market has moved. If Harley were to ignore that, if they were to totally ignore the adventure bike and electric market and instead do what so many on these forums have told them to do, "focus on fixing our bikes", Harley would go the way of the typewriter within a decade. That would be corporate malfeasance.
Harley is still undisputed king of the touring bike, and they are still turning a profit at it. And they will continue to be king so long as we continue to buy their big bikes, but the die is cast, that market's days are over, sales are shrinking, and it's not coming back. Other markets are growing. They have to get into those markets. That's what they're trying.
Given your faith in the HD “direction” I assume you’re buying lots of shares of HOG. Lol.
Last edited by Heatwave; Feb 26, 2019 at 11:17 PM.
I just love within the first 3 seconds of going to the web page linked above , A fricken Harley Davidson add pops up at the bottom of the screen advertising to buy a new bike for 2.99 %.
The good news about Honda and BMW unit sales being up based on 125cc and 310cc bikes is that those are new rider bikes. Your old white guy on a Harley touring bike isn't buying them, young people are buying them, they are learning about and enjoying motorcycles, good chance in the future they will buy a bigger bike.
The good news about Honda and BMW unit sales being up based on 125cc and 310cc bikes is that those are new rider bikes. Your old white guy on a Harley touring bike isn't buying them, young people are buying them, they are learning about and enjoying motorcycles, good chance in the future they will buy a bigger bike.
EXACTLY.
And Harley has bet the farm on their goal of "building two million new riders". Which all seems to point to them knowing exactly which way the winds are blowing, and taking steps towards that. The Street 500 & 750 were tentative first steps, but they were too heavy and too expensive (read: "too Harley") for the intended market. The electric mountain bike and scooter are such radically different ideas, it gives me optimism that Harley might "get it" with this next round of introductions.
If you guys aren't keeping up with small displacement, that's where all the fun is. For less than the cost of a Stage II upgrade on my Harley, I could pick up a Benelli TNT 135 and have an entirely new experience in my garage, racing on go-kart tracks at 10/10. Two of the most interesting bikes to me of recent years are the BMW G310GS, an actual GS from BMW for about $5,000, and the new Ninja 400, a lightweight sport bike with real performance for under $5,000. I could buy all three of them (and probably will) for less than my Fat Bob cost. Heck, for the amount I spent in upgrades on my Fat Bob, I could have bought either the BMW or the Kawasaki outright. I've been thinking about getting a 128 kit for my Fat Bob, but that'll cost about $5,000. I could have a second fun bike for that. Why wouldn't I?
And that's the operative word here: FUN. Millennials and youngers aren't about "things" anymore, they're about "experiences". So if they're going to be lured by anything, it has to be cheap enough for them to buy, and it has to be fun enough for them to care. Harley's future is not going to be built on more and more touring bikes. Their future riders are going to be built on smaller, more affordable bikes. Electric, yes. But I'd frickin' love to see them come out with a 500cc Pan America with a low seat height and a $6995 price tag. That's the kind of thing they could do which would rock the market to the core and show that they're SERIOUS about building 2 million new riders.
They'll keep building touring bikes as long as they keep selling, but focusing on touring bikes is not their future and they know it.
I've been told, by somebody who knows, that Harley is releasing some new news, in the near future, perhaps by the end of March or early April. It's supposed to be "huge." A "game changer", something nobody is expecting. Of course, keep in mind, that's coming from somebody whose economic future depends on Harley's economic future.
I'll be looking forward to hearing it, whatever "it" is.
I've been expecting them to discontinue the Sportster for a couple of years now. So I will take a wild stab at it: the new announcement will be that the Sportster is going the way of the V-Rod and the Dyna, being replaced with something totally new and much better. My guess is a new line based on the Revolution X 500 and 750, but this time lightweight and affordable. And if they want a total game changer in there, they'll include a 500cc Pan America.
And Harley has bet the farm on their goal of "building two million new riders". Which all seems to point to them knowing exactly which way the winds are blowing, and taking steps towards that. The Street 500 & 750 were tentative first steps, but they were too heavy and too expensive (read: "too Harley") for the intended market. The electric mountain bike and scooter are such radically different ideas, it gives me optimism that Harley might "get it" with this next round of introductions.
If you guys aren't keeping up with small displacement, that's where all the fun is. For less than the cost of a Stage II upgrade on my Harley, I could pick up a Benelli TNT 135 and have an entirely new experience in my garage, racing on go-kart tracks at 10/10. Two of the most interesting bikes to me of recent years are the BMW G310GS, an actual GS from BMW for about $5,000, and the new Ninja 400, a lightweight sport bike with real performance for under $5,000. I could buy all three of them (and probably will) for less than my Fat Bob cost. Heck, for the amount I spent in upgrades on my Fat Bob, I could have bought either the BMW or the Kawasaki outright. I've been thinking about getting a 128 kit for my Fat Bob, but that'll cost about $5,000. I could have a second fun bike for that. Why wouldn't I?
And that's the operative word here: FUN. Millennials and youngers aren't about "things" anymore, they're about "experiences". So if they're going to be lured by anything, it has to be cheap enough for them to buy, and it has to be fun enough for them to care. Harley's future is not going to be built on more and more touring bikes. Their future riders are going to be built on smaller, more affordable bikes. Electric, yes. But I'd frickin' love to see them come out with a 500cc Pan America with a low seat height and a $6995 price tag. That's the kind of thing they could do which would rock the market to the core and show that they're SERIOUS about building 2 million new riders.
They'll keep building touring bikes as long as they keep selling, but focusing on touring bikes is not their future and they know it.
When I got back into motorcycles about four years ago it was on a Ninja 250. Pretty soon my 16 year old daughter, 19 year old son and 22 year old son (at the time) all had Ninja 250's. The 22 year old son is now 26 and still has a Ninja 250, the other two ride Sportsters, used Sportsters, but they are on Harley's. Two of my sons friends have recently started riding. One on a old used Honda Shadow and one on an older Moto Guzi 700. Millennials love motorcycles, if they can afford them.
There are dealerships selling the Kawasaki Z125 Pro, a Grom clone, for $2,200 (plus tax, tags, ect....) At that price I am seriously thinking about picking one up to play in parking lots.
I don't know if Harley knows exactly what the motorcycle market is doing, but they know what they have been doing in the past isn't working anymore and they are trying something different. Someone said the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. Harley can't keep selling big expensive touring bikes to fat old white guys and survive. They did that over and over and it's not working anymore. Now they are trying something new. I'm excited about it, and I'm a fat old white guy.
So heat wave how long you been riding Harleys? They have always been overpriced, underpowered and have had reliability issues against any Asian offering. Todays bikes are the best ever. Harley sells more motorcycles per quarter in the US than BMW does all year. Harley sells almost as many motorcycles per quarter in the US than BMW does all year on their home turf. This includes all motorcycle genres, so yours is not really an apples to apples comparison is it? I know you, as much as my brother, have an "axe to grind" against the motor company due to the sumping issue, but lets be honest here. Honda competes in all motorcycle genres. The end of the world is not near...
Originally Posted by Heatwave
Actually the facts on the ground don't support your beliefs about other motorcycle brands also declining in sales. BMW Motorrad just had their 8th consecutive year of motorcycle sales increases. https://www.bmwmoa.org/news/434126/B...es-figures.htm
And Honda also had banner growth in their motorcycle sales with 7 consecutive years of motorcycle sales growth globally including growth in US sales. Unfortunately too many supporters of Harley (I happen to be one) have worn blinders to the fact that Harley has continuously missed the target in delivering motorcycles that are valued by enough of their existing customers and lots of new customers to grow the company.
Harley has just finished their 6th consecutive year of declining sales and they are now entering a dangerous point of customers simply "moving on". In the absence of greater value, lower prices, exciting new products or new customers being identified VERY QUICKLY, I believe HD will soon become a corporate takeover candidate. The outcome will not be pretty for those currently running Harley Davidson. But what do I know??? I'm just a guy that has liked Harleys in the past but find their current offerings overpriced, underpowered and plagued with reliability issues that have become a serious concern. The market will sort HD out one way or another.
There are dealerships selling the Kawasaki Z125 Pro, a Grom clone, for $2,200 (plus tax, tags, ect....) At that price I am seriously thinking about picking one up to play in parking lots.
Might want to check out go-kart tracks in your area. If they have bike nights, you could race that thing on a "real" track, at full 10/10, with much less risk than would happen on a full-sized bike. When you're running WFO on the straightaway and the thing will only get to 45 mph, it's a lot harder to get in real trouble. And the Z125 is supposed to have outrageous ground clearance.
And Harley has bet the farm on their goal of "building two million new riders". Which all seems to point to them knowing exactly which way the winds are blowing, and taking steps towards that. The Street 500 & 750 were tentative first steps, but they were too heavy and too expensive (read: "too Harley") for the intended market. The electric mountain bike and scooter are such radically different ideas, it gives me optimism that Harley might "get it" with this next round of introductions.
If you guys aren't keeping up with small displacement, that's where all the fun is. For less than the cost of a Stage II upgrade on my Harley, I could pick up a Benelli TNT 135 and have an entirely new experience in my garage, racing on go-kart tracks at 10/10. Two of the most interesting bikes to me of recent years are the BMW G310GS, an actual GS from BMW for about $5,000, and the new Ninja 400, a lightweight sport bike with real performance for under $5,000. I could buy all three of them (and probably will) for less than my Fat Bob cost. Heck, for the amount I spent in upgrades on my Fat Bob, I could have bought either the BMW or the Kawasaki outright. I've been thinking about getting a 128 kit for my Fat Bob, but that'll cost about $5,000. I could have a second fun bike for that. Why wouldn't I?
And that's the operative word here: FUN. Millennials and youngers aren't about "things" anymore, they're about "experiences". So if they're going to be lured by anything, it has to be cheap enough for them to buy, and it has to be fun enough for them to care. Harley's future is not going to be built on more and more touring bikes. Their future riders are going to be built on smaller, more affordable bikes. Electric, yes. But I'd frickin' love to see them come out with a 500cc Pan America with a low seat height and a $6995 price tag. That's the kind of thing they could do which would rock the market to the core and show that they're SERIOUS about building 2 million new riders.
They'll keep building touring bikes as long as they keep selling, but focusing on touring bikes is not their future and they know it.
You just wrote the epitaph of Harley if what you believe comes to be true. Harley will NEVER succeed trying to outdo Honda or Kawasaki or BMW at the small bike game. If they are "betting the farm on small bikes", they are about to lose the farm. The other bike makers have a 50 year headstart on the design and reliability of smaller bikes and understanding the recipe, and more importantly the profitability, of "fun" in that segment.. Harley already tried that game with Buell... and lost ...badly.
Touring bikes are the only segment of their portfolio that has kept the company afloat and they have actually maintained sales in Touring while the rest of the HD lineup has continued to slide.
You answered your own question on how successful HD will be at this small bike game when you said: "I'd frickin' love to see them come out with a 500cc Pan America with a low seat height and a $6995 price tag." One promise I can make you is that possibility will NEVER happen, at least not at $6995.... Lol.. HD will experiment and fumble around with $30K e-bikes and over priced Adventure/Street Bikes as the marketplace turns their back on these very expensive, less capable alternatives when compared with the terrific competitor products already on the market.
I'm afraid your views on what is best for HD is very wishful thinking. The market will and has already rejected this small bike HD strategy given the far better and far lower priced alternatives that are already available on the market.
If HD can not be a profitable company in a market segment that they have owned for 100 years than there will likely be no place for a company like HD in the long run. If guys like you think they just need to produce another Honda or BMW-like small bike to return to growth, I'm afraid you have serious disappointment ahead. HD will be wasting the limited R&D resources of a relatively small company (HD) when compared with the budgets of Polaris, Kawasaki, Honda and BMW. Changes are a comin' and they won't be kind to HD.
7 Surprising Harley-Davidson Products that Are Not Motorcycles
Slideshow: The bar-and-shield logo shows up on far more than motorcycles, some of the company's most unexpected products have nothing to do with riding.
Slideshow: From the troubled AMF years to modern misfires, these bikes earned reputations for reliability issues, questionable engineering, or disappointing performance.
Crazy Bunderbike Build Looks Amazing, But Is It Impossible to Ride?
Slideshow: The Swiss custom shop has taken a Harley Softail and stretched it into something so long and low that it looks closer to a rolling sculpture than a conventional motorcycle.
Engraved Rebellion: Inside Bundnerbike's Glam Rock II
Slideshow: A standard cruiser becomes an intricate metal canvas in the hands of a Swiss custom house known for pushing Harley-Davidson platforms far beyond their factory brief.
Slideshow: Harley-Davidson's challenges aren't abstract; they show up in dropping shipments, shrinking dealer traffic, and strategic decisions that aren't yet translating into growth.
