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in early March, Harley-Davidson announced that global sales for its motorcycles had fallen 13% in the first two months of this year. U.S. retail sales -- which accounted for almost 73% of the company's sales -- were down 9.4% in the same period; international sales dropped by 21.5%. The 105-year-old company's stock, which was trading at $42.80 as recently as six months ago, is now barely in the double digits.
"Barely" in the double digits? Closed today at $15.72. For comparison, Microsoft closed at $19.29. H-D is struggling, just like every other big manufacturing company, but they're hardly in dire straits. The MoCo is basically sound; cutting production is a normal response to a market slowdown. Otherwise you get saddled with a lot of excess inventory. They've weathered much worse storms than this, and they're in better shape than the Big Three. There's no loss of confidence in the company itself, either by investors (see: Warren Buffett) or by consumers (it'd take a lot to shake Harley loyalists into buying, say, a Victory).
Every market-watcher out there seems to be of the opinion that things are now about as bad as they're going to get. The market has swung around, job losses have slowed, and the other major industries are starting to pick back up, or at least they've stopped falling. The question now is how to break the credit market loose, which is a matter of confidence, and how long will things stay here before we see real improvements.
Slideshow: From the troubled AMF years to modern misfires, these bikes earned reputations for reliability issues, questionable engineering, or disappointing performance.
Crazy Bunderbike Build Looks Amazing, But Is It Impossible to Ride?
Slideshow: The Swiss custom shop has taken a Harley Softail and stretched it into something so long and low that it looks closer to a rolling sculpture than a conventional motorcycle.
Engraved Rebellion: Inside Bundnerbike's Glam Rock II
Slideshow: A standard cruiser becomes an intricate metal canvas in the hands of a Swiss custom house known for pushing Harley-Davidson platforms far beyond their factory brief.
Slideshow: Harley-Davidson's challenges aren't abstract; they show up in dropping shipments, shrinking dealer traffic, and strategic decisions that aren't yet translating into growth.