Exactly right.

Back in those days, HD was a niche brand. They were selling, what, something like 30k units/year? Whatever the number, it was a small fraction of what it became later.

That gets to the fundamental dilemma the company is facing. They want the brand to represent the social and cultural space it occupied in 1968...where the guys buying them were a special breed of dedicated enthusiasts, but they also want to be a mass-market brand.

I don't think they can do both.

They had a run, roughly from 1988 to 2005 lets say, where they did manage to bridge that gap, but the reason they were able to was because the guys who were buying brought with them that image of the HD culture from the 60's and 70's. The guy who was 45 in 1995 was 18 in 1968, and to him the idea of HD ownership had a fairly specific meaning. The guys riding HD's in 1968 (and there weren't a lot of them) were admired for their individualism, their sense of non-conformity, their freedom, their independence. Plus, they were a little dangerous. You can't over-estimate how appealing that is as a marketing message.

The MoCo figured out that the way to sell Harleys (not motorcycles, but Harleys) to 45 year olds in 1995 was to convince them that by buying one, they could go back and become that guy they had admired in 1968. Plus, thanks to the Evo motor, the bikes were dramatically easier to live with, so becoming that guy wasn't nearly as demanding as it used to be.

Just like that, every well-stocked suburban garage had the Cherokee (hers) the Accord (his) and a shiny Harley in the corner. You might be a respectable mid-level corporate manager during the week, but come Saturday you can put on your pirate outfit and badass around with the best of them.

In their success, however, they also destroyed the underlying cultural perception that drove those sales.

If you were born after 1980, you were born into a culture that had a very different perception of HD's than the guys born from 1945 to 1965. Imagine the guy born in 1950, and imagine his mental image of a Harley rider in 1968. Now imagine the guy born in 2000, and imagine his mental image of a Harley rider today.

No comparison.

I don't have any answers to this, but I think this is the root of HD's troubles, and it isn't going to change.

What happens from here is anyone's guess. FWIW, my guess is that the MoCo continues to see long term, structural declines in motorcycle sales over the coming decades. I don't think there is anything they can do about it. I think motorcycles themselves are in long-term decline, and I think the HD's particular type of motorcycle is going to decline even faster.

I think young people today have disassociated transportation from socializing. That is why they are generally disinterested in driving, and it makes them even more disinterested in motorcycles. They are interested in tech gadgets and aps, not machinery. They would rather take a Uber, and look forward to the availability of driverless cars so they can twiddle on their phones as they move around. Obviously the MoCo agrees. There's only one reason to close the KC plant, and that is it.

But you never can tell. Motorcycles are highly emotional things, and something could come along tomorrow that reinvigorates demand.

For me, none of this really matters anyway. I'll continue to enjoy my bikes, and if I ever want another, I'll also enjoy the ridiculous bounty of amazing, low-cost bikes on the secondary market. Life is good.

 

^^^ great post, I completely agree with you

 

I am quite sure H-D knows what they are doing. What other company has successfully and uniquely sold a lifestyle to wanton buyers to the extent that they have? H-D lost some credibility in the 50's when they petitioned for tariffs on imported bikes in an attempt to corner the market and thwart competition. Bought out in the late 60's by AMF and then quality went in the toilet. They've been down many times over the years. They always restructure and survive. The brand is strong and steeped in American history. If it disappears tomorrow, it certainly wasn't due to lack of effort.

Polaris? Mmmkay. Indian is doing ok, but they have their problems. I recall a lot of Victory bikes being sold, but where are they now? How many Slingshots do you see on the road? There's no staying power there. They have made great ATV and watercraft vehicles. Still do. The rest is just trying to copy what H-D has done. Not gonna happen. All the other bike makers have their niche markets. Perhaps H-D needs to re-evaluate theirs.

 

Young people have very little interest in motorcycles. I work with over 200 people & most of them are younger than 35. Only 3 of us ride, me on a '94 FXLR, & the others are a '98 1200 Sportster Custom & a Suzuki GSXR. It really doesn't matter what Harley builds at this point as folks just have little interest in riding motorcycles....

 

Bingo! To an extent. Hollywood and the counter-culture wars had a lot to do with it too. Keep in mind that those rough and tumble riders that kids admired represented just 1% of total riders. Hollywood largely glamorized the "biker" and kids from that time were looking for ways to **** their parents off. For a lot of them, that opportunity did not come until they had met their obligations: job, wife, kids, mortgage. Only then did they have the time, money, and opportunity to indulge their inner wild child.

Bikers and motorcycle riding has not been glamorized by Hollywood like that since and the social persona that was glorified is fading from memory.

 

Chrysler is in trouble, Despite producing the Demon or the track hawk as those will not save the brand. Very few people can afford the newest vehicles to put Chrysler on the map. Jeep and Ram are the only thing bringing people into the showroom at my Chrysler store, they really need to freshen up the whole line up which is no small task. You do see a ton of Challengers and chargers out there but a lot of those are previous rental fleet vehicles that people bought used. I won't even get into the profitability of their dealers, look at a $40k wrangler, from invoice to sticker is less than $1500. Would you invest $40k out of your checking account for a chance to make $1500? I wouldn't, but that is where the brand is today. We are selling rebates and 20% off discounts rather than a superior product. This is not unlike where Harley is except most HD dealers still think they are selling crack like they were in the 90's..

I love my HD and as a whole I like the brand, It is a difficult time to be in this business. They have some seriously tough decisions in front of them to try and lure the younger crowd back to motorcycles.

 

 

Ding ding ding...we have a winner...Harley's true problem in the least amount of words.

 

Dear MoCo,
Stop building junk.
When I was young, my AMF Shovelhead, despite it's reputation, was actually quite reliable. I rode it for 14 years. I still have it.
Then I got an Evo in '93. The first season I had it, the base gaskets started weeping. I finished the season and had no desire to repeat the repair every year, so I used aftermarket gaskets from another company that had a better handle on the thermo coefficient of expansion. While I was in there, I did away with that crappy INS cam bearing too. The bike has been bulletproof ever since.

Some years later, my wife wanted her own bike. She got an '05 Dyna. In less than 25,000 miles, the cam chain tensioners were shot. I replaced the system with a later-model "Hybrid" kit (hybrid means that once again, an aftermarket company figured out a better system, and you slapped your name on it).

Then came the Gushmore, with the radiator (or whatever) leaks. Pass.
Then, whatever changed in the primary had compensator problems. Pass.
Then, you decided to put a tv in the dashboard and call it "Infotainment". The 110th anniversary open-house at the factory had a display model that didn't work. Pass.
Now the M-8's have numerous complaints about sumping and need engine replacement. Also numerous complaints about ABS brakes and recalls. Pass.

I'm not that star-struck young guy anymore that wants to sit on the floor of the garage and un-do your bad enginneering and cheap materials. Your market isn't all dying off. We're just tired of your ****.
Sincerely,
A Life Member.