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I don't know the specs on the LED Harley puts in the speedo, but Sylvania makes an 8-watt LED bulb that's probably very similar. It costs about $40, and has a life expectancy of 25,000 hours. Using this example as a guide, and assuming you average about 60 mph for most of your miles, that means you might have to worry about it when you hit around 250,000 miles. I see Sportster speedo's on ebay going for under $100, so you wouldn't be saving much by changing just the bulb.
Honestly though, how many people really put 250,000 miles on a Sportster? And by the time you do get there, this will be one of the least expensive and perhaps easiest maintenance you have to worry about. All that said, it seems like a very trivial thing to get hung up on. Just get out there and ride, and perhaps the Sportster or even Harleys in general aren't right for you if you're concerned about costs for parts. I'll be the first to tell you that HD parts are anything but cheap.
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Slideshow: The Swiss custom shop has taken a Harley Softail and stretched it into something so long and low that it looks closer to a rolling sculpture than a conventional motorcycle.
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Slideshow: A standard cruiser becomes an intricate metal canvas in the hands of a Swiss custom house known for pushing Harley-Davidson platforms far beyond their factory brief.
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