HOG stock
The Schlong Man
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 3,772
Likes: 4
From: Nantucket
Cruiser
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 235
Likes: 0
From: Virginia
I'm no way a "stock-guru" (see airline investments...
).
Here's my take. The during the early 70's recession (brought on in part by the infamous "oil embargo"...don't even want to start that discussion please), Harley was already losing customers (introduction of Honda CB750, etc). Harleys were priced high, had a rep as being only for the "outlaw" type, etc. Harley was headed for bankruptcy. AMF stepped in and fortunately saved Harley (we should all thank AMF...and yes, I owned three AMF Harleys with no issues).
The difference now (from then) is:
1. Harley is more of a main stream bike meaning it is desireable by more people.
2. People who buy NEW Harleys are usually more affluent...and older than dirt....
3. Harley makes much, much more money from after-market parts, clothing and other "life-style" goods/services than ever before (I remember in 1975 most dealerships had few after-market parts, options and clothing).
I don't see Harley dropping "off-the-board". I do see HOG stock continuing it's decline though. I too will get real interested in HOG when (and if) it gets under $8...knowing that (1) the company probably won't go bankrupt and (2) the stock will eventually go up.
Just my two uneducated cents.
). Here's my take. The during the early 70's recession (brought on in part by the infamous "oil embargo"...don't even want to start that discussion please), Harley was already losing customers (introduction of Honda CB750, etc). Harleys were priced high, had a rep as being only for the "outlaw" type, etc. Harley was headed for bankruptcy. AMF stepped in and fortunately saved Harley (we should all thank AMF...and yes, I owned three AMF Harleys with no issues).
The difference now (from then) is:
1. Harley is more of a main stream bike meaning it is desireable by more people.
2. People who buy NEW Harleys are usually more affluent...and older than dirt....
3. Harley makes much, much more money from after-market parts, clothing and other "life-style" goods/services than ever before (I remember in 1975 most dealerships had few after-market parts, options and clothing).
I don't see Harley dropping "off-the-board". I do see HOG stock continuing it's decline though. I too will get real interested in HOG when (and if) it gets under $8...knowing that (1) the company probably won't go bankrupt and (2) the stock will eventually go up.
Just my two uneducated cents.
Banned
Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,551
Likes: 6
SSN711,
HOG will get far below 8/share, and soon.
By the very nature of their product, HOG stock will take forever to recover. Folks simply don't buy expensive luxury/novely items untill a full recovery is well along....That means years.....An that means years AFTER the economy hits bottom(which is hasn't and ain't even close).
If you want HOG stock, stash your cash and wait......HOG bottom will be easy to spot...It will hit bottom sooner than the broader industrial market and remain longer on the bottom....Once the total economy turns and folks are back at work and credit is finally available then and only then will you want to buy into HOG. HOG will then slowly follow the economy up.
With all that said, you might wanna reconsider buying HOG altogether.....There will be lots more and quicker money to be made once things start back up.
It's like I tried to tell my last wife, "Horses are the last thing you buy, and the first thing you sell."....Same with Harleys.
HOG will get far below 8/share, and soon.
By the very nature of their product, HOG stock will take forever to recover. Folks simply don't buy expensive luxury/novely items untill a full recovery is well along....That means years.....An that means years AFTER the economy hits bottom(which is hasn't and ain't even close).
If you want HOG stock, stash your cash and wait......HOG bottom will be easy to spot...It will hit bottom sooner than the broader industrial market and remain longer on the bottom....Once the total economy turns and folks are back at work and credit is finally available then and only then will you want to buy into HOG. HOG will then slowly follow the economy up.
With all that said, you might wanna reconsider buying HOG altogether.....There will be lots more and quicker money to be made once things start back up.
It's like I tried to tell my last wife, "Horses are the last thing you buy, and the first thing you sell."....Same with Harleys.
Cruiser
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 235
Likes: 0
From: Virginia
SSN711,
HOG will get far below 8/share, and soon.
By the very nature of their product, HOG stock will take forever to recover. Folks simply don't buy expensive luxury/novely items untill a full recovery is well along....That means years.....An that means years AFTER the economy hits bottom(which is hasn't and ain't even close).
If you want HOG stock, stash your cash and wait......HOG bottom will be easy to spot...It will hit bottom sooner than the broader industrial market and remain longer on the bottom....Once the total economy turns and folks are back at work and credit is finally available then and only then will you want to buy into HOG. HOG will then slowly follow the economy up.
With all that said, you might wanna reconsider buying HOG altogether.....There will be lots more and quicker money to be made once things start back up.
It's like I tried to tell my last wife, "Horses are the last thing you buy, and the first thing you sell."....Same with Harleys.
HOG will get far below 8/share, and soon.
By the very nature of their product, HOG stock will take forever to recover. Folks simply don't buy expensive luxury/novely items untill a full recovery is well along....That means years.....An that means years AFTER the economy hits bottom(which is hasn't and ain't even close).
If you want HOG stock, stash your cash and wait......HOG bottom will be easy to spot...It will hit bottom sooner than the broader industrial market and remain longer on the bottom....Once the total economy turns and folks are back at work and credit is finally available then and only then will you want to buy into HOG. HOG will then slowly follow the economy up.
With all that said, you might wanna reconsider buying HOG altogether.....There will be lots more and quicker money to be made once things start back up.
It's like I tried to tell my last wife, "Horses are the last thing you buy, and the first thing you sell."....Same with Harleys.
Just saw HOG hit $10.20...maybe I will wait for $4/share...
Banned
Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,551
Likes: 6
If you are watching live quotes, then you are too focused......
Back way off and scale the chart for 1 yr or even 2yr..............Try MSN or Yahoo finance sites for the charts........Learn to combine and overlay the charts with other stocks so you can see how they lever and react to each other......
Go ahead and pull up HOG on a one year scale and overlay GM, Ford, DOW, S&P500 and NASDAQ...You will see that HOG traveled down with them but at a much steeper and deeper rate this last year.....Then consider that seeing as how it relates to motorcycles, it can only follow the recovery of same, but it cannot help but lag behind because the total economy has to get fixed before folks restart buying scooters.
Here, if this chart loads, it will show you what I'm describing.....Notice how all the stocks fell, but look at how HOG reacted to the drop.....HOG fell off the cliff in comparision, huh?.....This chart shows the cause and effect on motorcycle stocks in relation to total market decline......You would see exactly the same drops if it were RV's, boats, or other toys.
Harley might get super cheap, but if you buy it you will wait forever to realize any gain.....Your money is best invested in the stocks that will actually drive the economy up, not ones that finally appreciate once the economy is restored.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor...ocookie=1&SZ=0
Back way off and scale the chart for 1 yr or even 2yr..............Try MSN or Yahoo finance sites for the charts........Learn to combine and overlay the charts with other stocks so you can see how they lever and react to each other......
Go ahead and pull up HOG on a one year scale and overlay GM, Ford, DOW, S&P500 and NASDAQ...You will see that HOG traveled down with them but at a much steeper and deeper rate this last year.....Then consider that seeing as how it relates to motorcycles, it can only follow the recovery of same, but it cannot help but lag behind because the total economy has to get fixed before folks restart buying scooters.
Here, if this chart loads, it will show you what I'm describing.....Notice how all the stocks fell, but look at how HOG reacted to the drop.....HOG fell off the cliff in comparision, huh?.....This chart shows the cause and effect on motorcycle stocks in relation to total market decline......You would see exactly the same drops if it were RV's, boats, or other toys.
Harley might get super cheap, but if you buy it you will wait forever to realize any gain.....Your money is best invested in the stocks that will actually drive the economy up, not ones that finally appreciate once the economy is restored.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor...ocookie=1&SZ=0
Last edited by oinker02; Jan 23, 2009 at 12:04 PM.
Road Warrior
Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,313
Likes: 13
From: USA
Banned
Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,551
Likes: 6
I've been watching also. Wish I could have bought this morning @ 9:45 am when it was $10.10 a share. Who do you use for your trades?
(HOG: Harley-Davidson, Inc.)
Last: 11.23-1.17-9.44%
11:46am 01/23/2009
(HOG: Harley-Davidson, Inc.)
Last: 11.23-1.17-9.44%
11:46am 01/23/2009
I'm a news junky and political chess fan so when I do play the markets, I base all my investment shifts on world economic trends driven by political events.....World economics are actually very predictable if you watch the political chess game....As always there is cause and effect, so I learned to predict the economic effect based on current political events and managed to never lose a single buck.
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Outstanding HDF Member
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 2,034
Likes: 127
The cold harsh reality of it...things are getting worse
Harley Davidson was out with earnings this morning and it is bleak. 4th quarter earinings are off 58%, plus it has $1 billion in unmet cash flow needs for 2009. Further, it says fully 25% of its loans have been made to sub prime borrowers. Yikes! Sounds like the housing industry, doesn't it?
They are also saying that sales will continue to decline for the rest of 2009 as the economy worsens. Two plants in Milwaukee are being consolidated into a third plant in a different location in Wisconsin. The closing of the two engine and transmission plants will eliminate 800 hourly workers and another 300 admin jobs. This will amount to about 11% of Harleys total workforce. Paint and frame operations will now be consolidated in York, Pa. In addition Harley will also close it's distribution facility in Franklin, Wi. The company did receive a 500 million bank loan back in late December 2008, but will probably blow throught that "like you know what" through a tin horn. So far about 8 Harley dealers have buttoned up in the last 12 months with more expected to follow as profits continue to slide.
A few weeks ago, Harly's head of Financial Services Arm abruptly left. James Ziemer the longtime President and CEO has announced that he too will be leaving in 2009.
Oh Mommy, this ain't good!
They are also saying that sales will continue to decline for the rest of 2009 as the economy worsens. Two plants in Milwaukee are being consolidated into a third plant in a different location in Wisconsin. The closing of the two engine and transmission plants will eliminate 800 hourly workers and another 300 admin jobs. This will amount to about 11% of Harleys total workforce. Paint and frame operations will now be consolidated in York, Pa. In addition Harley will also close it's distribution facility in Franklin, Wi. The company did receive a 500 million bank loan back in late December 2008, but will probably blow throught that "like you know what" through a tin horn. So far about 8 Harley dealers have buttoned up in the last 12 months with more expected to follow as profits continue to slide.
A few weeks ago, Harly's head of Financial Services Arm abruptly left. James Ziemer the longtime President and CEO has announced that he too will be leaving in 2009.
Oh Mommy, this ain't good!
Last edited by Retrop; Jan 24, 2009 at 09:10 AM.
Banned
Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,551
Likes: 6
You can believe every dealer sitting in one of their new ultra modern stores is really fretting it right now.....Those guys have huge overhead-who knows what it costs them just to open the doors each day and make payroll. Those guys have to rely on a certain sales minimum volume to stay afloat.
Between this year and last, HD production cuts have guaranteed less sales volume at dealers even if their local economy will support past level sales, those dealers might experience lean earnings due to shortage of inventory or long waits.
As usual, the MOCO has not offered any factory incentive to dealers....because of that you can expect many to fold this year......PLUS their silly *** trade up guarantee on sportys will soon be seen as a typical scam when the trader learns his trade won't bring the promised MSRP when appraised by the dealer......Yep, the dealers are going to be completely own their own, so be very wary and read the fine print closely before you buy/trade.
We, as Harley owners, actually make out when the MOCO screws the dealers and lets them sink. Their refusal to lower dealer cost and shrinking production keeps the value of our bikes higher........But even that benny has it's downside when you gotta haul your scoot a hundred miles for service to a strange dealer.
Between this year and last, HD production cuts have guaranteed less sales volume at dealers even if their local economy will support past level sales, those dealers might experience lean earnings due to shortage of inventory or long waits.
As usual, the MOCO has not offered any factory incentive to dealers....because of that you can expect many to fold this year......PLUS their silly *** trade up guarantee on sportys will soon be seen as a typical scam when the trader learns his trade won't bring the promised MSRP when appraised by the dealer......Yep, the dealers are going to be completely own their own, so be very wary and read the fine print closely before you buy/trade.
We, as Harley owners, actually make out when the MOCO screws the dealers and lets them sink. Their refusal to lower dealer cost and shrinking production keeps the value of our bikes higher........But even that benny has it's downside when you gotta haul your scoot a hundred miles for service to a strange dealer.