All Harley Doom and Gloom Posts Mega Thread
Road Captain
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 574
Likes: 156
From: Big Sky Country
When considering this question I'm reminded of a philosophy class lecture years back in which the professor said that sometimes when questioning history we can make more sense of things by reframing the question. In this case the question isn't why Harley is on the decline, but instead why were they ever so successful in the first place. I believe their success was mostly accidental, or at least incidental, driven in large part by the mystique imparted by TV and movies of the 70s-90s in which almost all motorcycles were HD.
Popular culture is a fickle thing, however, and they've moved on to vintage (looking at least) British and Italian bikes--seriously, pay attention to the bikes featured in movies/TV these days. I think politics played into this change as well, since we now have a cadre of American hating progressives controlling the narrative in Hollywood and media in general, so it makes sense they now eschew an American icon brand like Harley Davidson. In decades past these same bozos were drawn to a sort of blue collar, PBR drinking, idealized "working man" motif of simple yet pure values, and Harley Davidson played into that fantasy as well--however, they've since realized that bikers in general are pretty much the antithesis of the progressive nonsense that's permeated society and social media, and on the rare occasion you see an HD on the big screen these days it's not portrayed at all favorably.
HD would have had to spend a fortune on marketing just to maintain the status quo and offset the lack of free publicity, and their attempts lately to set trends, or even capitalize on existing trends, are laughably inept--wide tires, denim paint, bobbers, blacked out trim, etc, etc, all brought to market 10-15 years after their popularity first ensued only served to show how embarrassingly behind the curve they are. HD certainly made hay while the sun was shining, and now that their popularity is on the wane I think they'll go back to more of a niche market of people who actually ride bikes instead of keeping them as a garage decoration/status symbol. Certainly a much smaller market, but hopefully one they can service successfully in the long term. Going forward I'll miss all the like new garage queens that can be had for pennies on the dollar versus new, but otherwise I'm fine with it.
Popular culture is a fickle thing, however, and they've moved on to vintage (looking at least) British and Italian bikes--seriously, pay attention to the bikes featured in movies/TV these days. I think politics played into this change as well, since we now have a cadre of American hating progressives controlling the narrative in Hollywood and media in general, so it makes sense they now eschew an American icon brand like Harley Davidson. In decades past these same bozos were drawn to a sort of blue collar, PBR drinking, idealized "working man" motif of simple yet pure values, and Harley Davidson played into that fantasy as well--however, they've since realized that bikers in general are pretty much the antithesis of the progressive nonsense that's permeated society and social media, and on the rare occasion you see an HD on the big screen these days it's not portrayed at all favorably.
HD would have had to spend a fortune on marketing just to maintain the status quo and offset the lack of free publicity, and their attempts lately to set trends, or even capitalize on existing trends, are laughably inept--wide tires, denim paint, bobbers, blacked out trim, etc, etc, all brought to market 10-15 years after their popularity first ensued only served to show how embarrassingly behind the curve they are. HD certainly made hay while the sun was shining, and now that their popularity is on the wane I think they'll go back to more of a niche market of people who actually ride bikes instead of keeping them as a garage decoration/status symbol. Certainly a much smaller market, but hopefully one they can service successfully in the long term. Going forward I'll miss all the like new garage queens that can be had for pennies on the dollar versus new, but otherwise I'm fine with it.
Sorry, I've always been paragraphically challenged... Added some CRs for easier reading
Grand HDF Member
Joined: Aug 2013
Posts: 3,673
Likes: 5,069
From: Georgia
So it may be that the August shows are done forever and now will be in February along with all launches to better align with the motorcycle season. The trimming I believe will be ditching different variants in each line, the soft tail line is a bit bloated with models. I doubt they will shelve the new engine nor the bikes already in the pipe line. Even the tour line could use some pairing down.
Tourer
Joined: Feb 2019
Posts: 441
Likes: 186
From: Creek
I would also post their 5 year performance.i would tend to think that most people when looking at an established company like HOG would look at the track record of a stock. Looking at one day,a week, or even a year I would think would be dangerous. They dropped the dividend by 95%.Lomg term that is huge. Meanwhile MMM JNJ raises their dividend.
Stellar HDF Member
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 3,174
Likes: 1,466
From: Charleston, SC
Another interesting thing that I noticed was their COST of Goods remained fairly consistent over a 4-5 year period, regardless of sales figures. With declining sales they must have made up the profits in PRICE INCREASES, it would seem to me. ( That is just my view of it. Maybe it was caused by something else I didn't see. )
One other area I looked at that had increased, in an odd manner to me. That was DEPRECIATION and Amortization. It increased every year from 2015. It came down a little from the 2018 level, but still higher than 2015. Can you explain that to me?
Stellar HDF Member
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 3,174
Likes: 1,466
From: Charleston, SC
Looks like they are also pumping the brakes on Levatich's direction
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/h...113131248.html
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/h...113131248.html
This to me indicates that there was considerable internal dislike of Levatich, and justly so I might add.
It might also be the reason for the upward "speculation" in the stock move yesterday and upward futures this morning(4.29.2020). I say "speculation" because at this point, Zeitz has not announced HOW he will turn things around, but saying that HE WILL is a great sign to me. The details on that can be worked out as they go. The MAIN reason I'm encouraged that they will turn some things around is that Zeitz has come on with EXACTLY what I have said Harley needed..... A NEW MINDSET!!!!!!!!!!!
RIDE ON, BIG HOG!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Tourer
Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 269
Likes: 172
From: Oley, PA
It might also be the reason for the upward "speculation" in the stock move yesterday and upward futures this morning(4.29.2020). I say "speculation" because at this point, Zeitz has not announced HOW he will turn things around, but saying that HE WILL is a great sign to me. The details on that can be worked out as they go. The MAIN reason I'm encouraged that they will turn some things around is that Zeitz has come on with EXACTLY what I have said Harley needed..... A NEW MINDSET!!!!!!!!!!!
It almost sounds like Harley plans to retreat into comfortable settings and play it safe for a bit, which would be very bad in my opinion. Hopefully they don't.
Grand HDF Member
Joined: Sep 2016
Posts: 3,522
Likes: 3,708
From: South Texas
True, but I don't like hearing they are going to reign in spending and tighten the belt financially. I feel HD needs to be innovating and spending on R&D now to close the gap between their bikes and the competitors feature/spec wise. They need to lower prices. They need to reduce the weight of the bikes. They need water cooled engines. They need ABS/TC as standard offerings. They need some kind of sport touring model. They need a bike with an electric adjustable windshield. All of this requires spending to achieve.
It almost sounds like Harley plans to retreat into comfortable settings and play it safe for a bit, which would be very bad in my opinion. Hopefully they don't.
It almost sounds like Harley plans to retreat into comfortable settings and play it safe for a bit, which would be very bad in my opinion. Hopefully they don't.
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Stellar HDF Member
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 3,174
Likes: 1,466
From: Charleston, SC
Electric windshield? Because folks get tired of throwing away money trying to get a windshield that works for them. And if you never had a bike with one on it, you don't know what you're missing. Honda had it on their ST1300 and it was great, especially in the summer when you could lower it all the way down. Now they have it on their 2018 and up GOLDWINGS. Having these don't mean having higher prices either. You have to forget that Harley mentality that the MotorCompany has drilled into us over the years.
And while they are at it, put a darn radiator on the darn things too! Look, my friend, Harley's days of just taking items off that were standard in the past, and then raising prices at the same time, are a thing of the PAST! They can't get away with that anymore. And that's what this new guy Zeitz(sp?) is trying to say to everybody. Let's give him a chance and see what he, or whoever is the new CEO does.
Last edited by GOV5; Apr 29, 2020 at 11:43 AM.
