Have not a clue but there was one a few years ago on ebay that I bid on that looked like a match. Sort of thought my bike should be old as me and since I rarely drive far. Looked good and was suppose to run good. However not a clue like this one what is what is correct and how that dives the price. Put a high bid near the end but was out bid by thousands. Glad now that I have a little more experience and experience with old bikes. Friend has a 38 and when we show up wife runs out with newspapers like I brought a new puppy home. Just make sure it's what you want, need and most of all like. Then money does not matter. You sure aren't going to ever buy a new one. Is a WL worth less or more?

 

Thanks Panz4ever. I appreciate your knowlege and insight. My question regarding value wasn't from a collectors point of view but from a pure market value perspective. When you look at prices for replica parts, I would have thought that even a bitsa bike with mostly OEM parts would be worth more. This is more of an insurance question than anything and would a $20k value be totally out of the ballpark.
In the greater scheme of things, $10-$12K doesn't buy you much these days and I'm afraid it's going to get a lot worse.

 

Market value on pans and shovels took a dive with the last recession. Knuckles and pre-war HDs managed to maintain. the 20K price for an assembled bike using mostly OEM might have got you close to 20 then but definitely not now. Seems like shovel prices were almost cut in half and pans dropped by at least 30-40 %.

Owning both models I may be a bit too critical, but it just doesn't seem like folks make a disitnction between bikes reassembled from mostly OEM or Tawain Ted; they tend to look at the pretty chrome or the fancy paint and then someone "tells" them (the prospective buyer) that it is "restored" and w/ only limited knowledge it is sold to a new owner who cannot fathom that he/she just got "taken to the cleaners" when a person with real understanding comes along to comment on their bike.

And you are right 10-12 desn't buy much theses days but if you are careful you can still get something reasonable that is generally stock and will not cost your firstborn child should you decide to take it back to a correct condition somewhere down the road...provided it is not too far away from stock. Lot of extra expense in finding 1-year only parts. And lately fleabay has had several sellers who are parting out OEM/almost OEM condition bikes becuase they assume they will get mnore for the parts than the bike as a whole. Unfortunately it seems to be working. A pox on them all!

 

I think you're right that parting out a OEM bike would bring more than the bike as a whole. I saw the little rubber piece that goes between the halves of fat bob tanks go for over $50 on Ebay.
The way the Fed is printing money, inflation is bound to take off and most assets will appreciate including collectible HDs.
As far as buying a bike with a lot of bling, "Let the Buyer Beware."