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Whatever you think is a good price. Every dealer is different. Some will deal with you and some won't. MSRP is mainly what you are going to find. Then you deal from there. Some will waive freight and setup, some won't. Some will discount the price or give you credit to buy in store or a deal on maintenance, etc.
I bought my 2014 48 Feb 28 (last day of the month). They asked if I was going to buy that day. I said, yes, I could but it would depend on what they did with the price. They knocked $1100 off the MSRP. They waived freight and setup. The bike had been sitting there since SEP '13. To me, that was a good price. I would have probably not gotten that deal in say May/June of this year.
Subguy's price is very good. I got $1000 off Msrp and had to pay the delivery/setup fees. The dealerships don't make a lot on sportys, maybe $1,200 or so if what I'm told by a reliable source is true. They get profits via financing and setup fees but the mark up is not that high on the bikes themselves. The mark up on the gear (shirts, jackets, boots etc) is insanely high, however, though you kind of expect that, it doesn't cost $32 to make at t shirt.
Likely get a better deal on it when they have new 15's beside it, specially with the same color. My 13 was the last on the floor in Nov, they dropped 1600 of off the OTD price.
I got just the opposite, nothing off the bike but a $500.00 store credit and first service (1000 mile) free = around $350.00. It was the last one they had and I bought it in October 2012.
Are you set on 48 Sporty, or any model in the Sportster category? Gotta realize there's not an over-abundance of 48's at most dealers so, as a hot seller, you might not get as much of a discount vs. say Iron883 where they'll have 4-5 left on floor. Back in 2012 I was set on getting another Sportster (new) and worked a deal for blue Iron883 @ a little over $7.5K OTD...of course they had three of the same bike sitting (in Sep) and wanted to move them out. Just got to be flexible and shop around...IMO.
I passed on the new Iron and ended up with nice used Sportster (1200S) so things worked out...don't rule out used either...
Sometimes you can negotiate some mods into the price or get store credits at a minimum. I got my brand new one out the door at 11k and then got $750 worth of store credits. Don't fall for the "tire package" or warranty upgrades. Kindly just say "no thank you". At least that was how I was advised by most fellow riders.
I did extensive research on this topic before I bought mine.
1- Best deal is buying used.
If you can be patient, take your time and wait. You will most likely save few grands.
2- If you have to buy new you dont need to go to the dealer. Start by asking for quotes from your local dealers using emails and their websites.
3- Make offers and include your phone number and stress that your offer is serious and no BS. I even stated that I was a sales manager from Toyota and want to skip the hassle.
4- Take the quote to different dealers and ask them if they can do any better. A good starting point is 10K when you make offers.
5- Do not make "out the door" offers. Always offer to pay tax and license. Unreasonable out the door offers will make one look like their shooting from the hip and not serious.
6- When they ask you when you are planning to buy you have to be able to say NOW. If you cannot say now, then you shouldnt be negotiating. Go to the dealer and enjoy looking at the bikes and wait till you are ready7
7- I am from Calif. where the prices are supposed to be higher. I could have a 2014 48 with Silver gas tank for $10300 plus tax and license only and that was before sitting down and actually negotiating.
8-Do not listen to negative comments like " demand is high and they go fast or they dont even negotiate". These are good for people who want to talk themselves into an easy way out and just letting themselves rubbed.
Anyways, I found mine for $8500 including tax with 385 miles on it. I strongly suggest buying used and save money. Use the savings to make the bike the way you want it to be.
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