2018 M8----Sumping? Failures?
#501
01-29-2019, 08:34 AM
Seasoned HDF Member
"A fraction of the bikes produced have exhibited the issue" Where are you getting your data? How are all of these bikes ridden? Do really know either answer? And since the M8 when cooled and idled can recover from a sumped condition, how many M8 owners have sumped their bikes, and not reported it as they simply don't know what sumping is or feels like?? Ok, one more twist. How many M8 owners brought their bike in for sumping, but the dealer couldn't reproduce it because they idled it so they got the bike back? Do you really know?
I know this may seem like I am knocking you but honestly I am happy you ride you bike in a manner where you don't sump it. My advice, staying away from the condition where you are buzz down the highway at 75-80 for an hour or more, hit some hills, then drop it down a gear to pass a truck while going up hill and maintaining speed. You may be surprised what just might happen to your statistic. Peace....
I know this may seem like I am knocking you but honestly I am happy you ride you bike in a manner where you don't sump it. My advice, staying away from the condition where you are buzz down the highway at 75-80 for an hour or more, hit some hills, then drop it down a gear to pass a truck while going up hill and maintaining speed. You may be surprised what just might happen to your statistic. Peace....
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#502
01-29-2019, 08:46 AM
Grand HDF Member
As a recent retiree from a small Harley Davidson franchise in Australia that has not had a sumping bike come through the workshop, I have an opinion.
Working and communicating with franchises in Australia that share information,I have an informed opinion.
Sumping does happen,we've had it here in Australia though the number is less than 20 bikes total as of DEC 18.
The TSB 1450 is one of hundreds of e-documents sent to franchises, we don't see a TSB unless that particular problem had surfaced at our dealership.
I would be looking at what factory a bike was built in if I had an interest in this problem.I have no interest in this problem.
I will respond to civil communications only or not at all.
Peace be with thee.
Working and communicating with franchises in Australia that share information,I have an informed opinion.
Sumping does happen,we've had it here in Australia though the number is less than 20 bikes total as of DEC 18.
The TSB 1450 is one of hundreds of e-documents sent to franchises, we don't see a TSB unless that particular problem had surfaced at our dealership.
I would be looking at what factory a bike was built in if I had an interest in this problem.I have no interest in this problem.
I will respond to civil communications only or not at all.
Peace be with thee.
This is exactly what I've been saying. The internet grossly magnifies the perception of the percentage of bikes that are having problems. Grossly.
Australia sells somewhere around 8,000 to 8,500 bikes per year. I haven't found the breakdown for Sportsters vs M8s, but if we say 2/3 M8 (Softail and Touring) to 1/3 Sportster, I think that's probably close enough for spitballing. Two and a half model years gives us a wild guess of maybe 10,000 to 12,000 M8 bikes in Australia. And 20 sumpers. That's a sump rate of 0.002%. Hey, let's go crazy and say that the "true" number is actually 10x higher than the dealers are seeing -- that would give us a sumping rate of 0.02%. Not 2%, like some claim. Not 10%, or 20%, like some claim. 0.02%. 1 out of 500. Not bad odds. Still higher than it should be, but 1 out of 500 isn't bad. And I bet you that probably half of those have Stage IV installed, if you avoid Stage IV I bet your sumping chances drop at least in half.
If sumping was this big hyper-prevalent disaster that certain folks want to claim that it is, then it would show up in Harley's earnings reports; the warranty claims expenses would be higher than prior years (and if you follow to the logical conclusion, those who claim that "the twincams never had ANYTHING like this" would have to acknowledge that the warranty repair charges during the TC years should obviously be much, much, much, much lower than the warranty repair charges during this "disastrous" M8 launch, right? So -- let's see the numbers. Sales will be down, yes, but if we don't see a huge drop in profitability that can be charged against warranty repair costs, then ... that will be proof of just how big a problem (or not) sumping is in the real world.
Last edited by FatBob2018; 01-29-2019 at 08:49 AM.
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#503
01-29-2019, 08:57 AM
Member
The fact that many 10's of thousands of bikes run as designed but many thousands also are defective still makes for an entirely unacceptable product.
I, along with many others, would like some real numbers. Not the guessing of forum, Facebook, or whatevers.
Someday the fanboys will need to wake up.
Calling people names usually puts them in a defensive posture and is not likely to get your point across.
The more they shout "there is no issue with the M8" just because THEIR bike is fine,
Again, there are very few that are saying that the problem doesn't exist. Most want factual numbers. You were delt a shitty hand and have a different perspective. The "Truth" as they say. Is probably somewhere in the middle.
the longer the issues will persist and the greater the decline of a once great company.
How much of a contribution this makes is probably insignificant. Probably couldn't even measure if it is possible. How could you?
Face it, HD has significant design and/or manufacturing issues with the M8.
See above. Real numbers please.
The longer the fanboyz keep cheering blindly,
see above about name calling.
the more likely we are to see an 8th, 9th and 10th consecutive year of Harley sales declines as former loyal customers throw up their hands in frustration and seek out better alternatives. And that will be a tragedy from my perspective.
If anyone thought that the M8 was going to create another motorcycle/HD craze. I have a bridge....
You said it right there^^^^^^^^^it's been on a decline for a long time.
Blind loyalty and silence will NOT result in better designed and more competitively priced motorcycles coming from the MoCo.
I, along with many others, would like some real numbers. Not the guessing of forum, Facebook, or whatevers.
Someday the fanboys will need to wake up.
Calling people names usually puts them in a defensive posture and is not likely to get your point across.
The more they shout "there is no issue with the M8" just because THEIR bike is fine,
Again, there are very few that are saying that the problem doesn't exist. Most want factual numbers. You were delt a shitty hand and have a different perspective. The "Truth" as they say. Is probably somewhere in the middle.
the longer the issues will persist and the greater the decline of a once great company.
How much of a contribution this makes is probably insignificant. Probably couldn't even measure if it is possible. How could you?
Face it, HD has significant design and/or manufacturing issues with the M8.
See above. Real numbers please.
The longer the fanboyz keep cheering blindly,
see above about name calling.
the more likely we are to see an 8th, 9th and 10th consecutive year of Harley sales declines as former loyal customers throw up their hands in frustration and seek out better alternatives. And that will be a tragedy from my perspective.
If anyone thought that the M8 was going to create another motorcycle/HD craze. I have a bridge....
You said it right there^^^^^^^^^it's been on a decline for a long time.
Blind loyalty and silence will NOT result in better designed and more competitively priced motorcycles coming from the MoCo.
#504
01-29-2019, 08:58 AM
I have just crossed 17,500 miles in a year. I ride my bike in a manner that might be termed "aggressive". I just got back from doing pretty much exactly what you describe, except that the speeds were generally 85+ (as in Texas we have highways with speed limits of usually at least 75, frequently 80, and in some cases 85). I went through the hill country aggressively. I rode the "three sisters", I am not confessing to having experimented with the top speed of the bike (which appears to be limited to 120 mph), I usually very aggressively accelerate when passing, usually dropping at least a gear if not two. When in the corners I'm rarely below 4,000 RPM and I bounce off the rev limiter like a basketball being dribbled. I don't go 10/10 on public roadways, I think folks who do that are epic douchebags, I ride completely safely and don't do anything aggressive when there are cars or other bikes (or cows) around. I don't treat the public roadways as my private racetrack, but I also don't putt around at 10mph under the speed limit either. And I don't go bar hopping, I ride long days, 8 to 12 hours per day. I don't take a lot of breaks, so -- I'll ride 75 for a couple of hours, pull into a gas station and refill my tiny 3.5-gallon tank without even getting off the bike, and pull out for another two-hour 75mph stint. Not the slightest hint of sumping, or any other problem, in 17,500 miles.
This is not to say sumping doesn't exist; of course it does. This is only to refute the notion of those who think that all the M8s out there are sumping and "you just haven't pushed it hard enough" ... well, I think I've pushed mine harder than approximately 95% of HD riders, and it doesn't sump. Next week I'm taking the bike for a track day. If it was ever going to sump, roaring around a racetrack at full throttle and redline should do it. We'll see.
I do not have, and would not have if you paid me, a Harley Stage IV kit on my bike; I think the Stage IV is disproportionately represented in sumping reports. I do not have, and would not have if you paid me, a CVO with a Stage IV; that seems to be the genesis of a grossly disproportionate number of sumping reports.
This is not to say sumping doesn't exist; of course it does. This is only to refute the notion of those who think that all the M8s out there are sumping and "you just haven't pushed it hard enough" ... well, I think I've pushed mine harder than approximately 95% of HD riders, and it doesn't sump. Next week I'm taking the bike for a track day. If it was ever going to sump, roaring around a racetrack at full throttle and redline should do it. We'll see.
I do not have, and would not have if you paid me, a Harley Stage IV kit on my bike; I think the Stage IV is disproportionately represented in sumping reports. I do not have, and would not have if you paid me, a CVO with a Stage IV; that seems to be the genesis of a grossly disproportionate number of sumping reports.
Unless you have followed the steps in SB1450 or followed the steps below on an M8 bike, I believe it is hard for a rider that has never felt sumping to conclusively say their bike does NOT sump.
Without the results from the steps below, I believe NO M8 bike owner unfamiliar with sumping can conclusively say their bike isn't sumping. It may not sump to the point of immediate engine failure but you may still in fact be sacrificing significant power at points in a ride and never even know it. The sumping may be mild but still causing premature engine wear that could bear its ugly head in the future.
Other than following the procedure in SB1450, the steps below are the only other way for an M8 bike owner to CONCLUSIVELY determine if their bike is NOT sumping without having a dealer perform the diagnosis.
STEPS TO CONFIRM SUMPING STATUS IN AN M8
1) Check the oil level on your bike following the Owner's Manual precisely. (If you need oil, bring the level close to FULL.) Take a picture of the dipstick at this pre-ride oil level.
2) Ride the bike (the way you described above for example) for an hr to 90 minutes with minimal stops or idling. The ride should include both highway and backroad riding. At the end of the ride, promptly turn the bike's engine off with minimal idling.
3) Repeat step 1. Take a picture of the dipstick at this post-ride oil level.
Compare the pre and post dipstick pictures.
A) If they are about the same. Your bike is NOT sumping and most likely never will sump.
B) If you are 2 to 4 rows of dots low on the dipstick, you may have a mild case of sumping. Worth sharing your results with the dealer. It's unlikely you'll feel this level of sumping but it could reduce performance and cause premature engine wear.
C) If you are down 5+ rows of dots on the post ride picture, then you probably have a serious case of sumping that should be IMMEDIATELY addressed. The likelihood of engine failure on a future ride is HIGH.
Last edited by Heatwave; 01-29-2019 at 09:06 AM.
#505
01-29-2019, 09:06 AM
Seasoned HDF Member
Bruce, You have proven on this forum many times you know your **** about HD's, so I have a serious question for you. Are you saying you don't believe your M8 bike is capable of sumping under the right condition? And outside that small fraction, none of those other M8's are capable of sumping?
My point was that we really don't know the % of bikes that are sumping. All I see here is guesses. What's an acceptable failure rate.. If it 1 in 2000 then it may be acceptable from a production stand point.. I do feel sorry for the guy with the 2000th bike.
Not saying I don't believe M8 can't sump, I just saying the problem gets pretty blown up..
#506
01-29-2019, 09:10 AM
I don't take it as you knocking me, but you are making assumptions as to how I ride my bike. I run hard and fast, sometimes 100+ miles a shot. If my bike was capable of sumping, it would have. As for data, I've said in the past that I run with a lot of groups of riders and attend a lot of the local events. Many of these guys have M8 bikes, and have never heard of nor know anyone that has had sumping problems. In all my travels, the only sumpers I know of are the folks that post about it here. I don't doubt that any one of them has experienced the issue and the headaches to try to correct it. But this forum is a micro-chasm of Harley ownership and experience. Lots of folks join forums only to share a negative experience, so the issue appears to be larger than it actually is. It make new owners unnecessarily nervous about their ownership. Then there are guys like Heatwave that just won't shut up about it. It's a little ridiculous.
It's OK for us to believe different things, but what that data(and other data) tells me is that there is a sumping issue for the M8, it's just that some bikes are closer to the cliff than others and the experts tell me there shouldn't be a cliff.
#507
01-29-2019, 09:12 AM
My point was that we really don't know the % of bikes that are sumping. All I see here is guesses. What's an acceptable failure rate.. If it 1 in 2000 then it may be acceptable from a production stand point.. I do feel sorry for the guy with the 2000th bike.
Not saying I don't believe M8 can't sump, I just saying the problem gets pretty blown up..
Not saying I don't believe M8 can't sump, I just saying the problem gets pretty blown up..
#508
01-29-2019, 09:18 AM
Member
I hear ya, and don't want to continue to go back and forth with you. My only other question is, if it's really a non issue or such a low fraction, why does HD continue to work on Oil Pumps. We are on version 6 or 7 and now one with a seal....and from what I hear the latest doesn't totally fix the problem either. I have also heard the real issue is a case design problem.
It's OK for us to believe different things, but what that data(and other data) tells me is that there is a sumping issue for the M8, it's just that some bikes are closer to the cliff than others and the experts tell me there shouldn't be a cliff.
It's OK for us to believe different things, but what that data(and other data) tells me is that there is a sumping issue for the M8, it's just that some bikes are closer to the cliff than others and the experts tell me there shouldn't be a cliff.
The problem no matter the size still needs to be addressed. They are going to continue building this motor for years. To totally ignore it?
#509
01-29-2019, 09:20 AM
My point was that we really don't know the % of bikes that are sumping. All I see here is guesses. What's an acceptable failure rate.. If it 1 in 2000 then it may be acceptable from a production stand point.. I do feel sorry for the guy with the 2000th bike.
Not saying I don't believe M8 can't sump, I just saying the problem gets pretty blown up..
Not saying I don't believe M8 can't sump, I just saying the problem gets pretty blown up..
The market is speaking loudly. HOG stock is down more than 5% this morning on dreadful 4Q and YE 2018 Financials. Sales down 10+% in the US. Down 6+% worldwide. P&A sales have fallen off a cliff down 15%. Unit sales crumbling. The only bright spot in their financial report released this morning is the profit they are making from Financial products. Essentially all the guys with massive loans on their bikes and the profit from ESP sales combined with voided warranties.
HD is now in their 7th consecutive year of declining sales and they are predicting 2019 could be even worse for an 8th consecutive year of declining sales.
There's no gloating on my part. I have always enjoyed my Harleys but their business model has failed with customers. Half the features, with 2/3s the power, for 2x the price of the competition plus buying expensive upgrades to match the competition AFTER you buy their bike is a recipe for failure. Particularly with some defective products in the hands of some customers.
Read the facts from this morning's financial release for yourself http://investor.harley-davidson.com/...1-45a58b29e4e0
Last edited by Heatwave; 01-29-2019 at 09:23 AM.
#510
01-29-2019, 09:29 AM
Member
I assume your last sentence was intended as a pun?
The market is speaking loudly. HOG stock is down more than 5% this morning on dreadful 4Q and YE 2018 Financials. Sales down 10+% in the US. Down 6+% worldwide. P&A sales have fallen off a cliff down 15%. Unit sales crumbling. The only bright spot in their financial report released this morning is the profit they are making from Financial products. Essentially all the guys with massive loans on their bikes and the profit from ESP sales combined with voided warranties.
HD is now in their 7th consecutive year of declining sales and they are predicting 2019 could be even worse for an 8th consecutive year of declining sales.
There's no gloating on my part. I have always enjoyed my Harleys but their business model has failed with customers. Half the features, with 2/3s the power, for 2x the price of the competition plus buying expensive upgrades to match the competition AFTER you buy their bike is a recipe for failure. Particularly with some defective products in the hands of some customers.
Read the facts from this morning's financial release for yourself http://investor.harley-davidson.com/...1-45a58b29e4e0
The market is speaking loudly. HOG stock is down more than 5% this morning on dreadful 4Q and YE 2018 Financials. Sales down 10+% in the US. Down 6+% worldwide. P&A sales have fallen off a cliff down 15%. Unit sales crumbling. The only bright spot in their financial report released this morning is the profit they are making from Financial products. Essentially all the guys with massive loans on their bikes and the profit from ESP sales combined with voided warranties.
HD is now in their 7th consecutive year of declining sales and they are predicting 2019 could be even worse for an 8th consecutive year of declining sales.
There's no gloating on my part. I have always enjoyed my Harleys but their business model has failed with customers. Half the features, with 2/3s the power, for 2x the price of the competition plus buying expensive upgrades to match the competition AFTER you buy their bike is a recipe for failure. Particularly with some defective products in the hands of some customers.
Read the facts from this morning's financial release for yourself http://investor.harley-davidson.com/...1-45a58b29e4e0
